The Thai baht strengthened about 0.6% against the U.S. dollar on Thursday, Nov. 5, trading near 33.40 per dollar, according to Trading Economics data, a day after S&P Global Ratings affirmed Thailand's BBB+ sovereign rating with a stable outlook.

The move pulls the currency further from the levels of late October, when it traded around 33.8 per dollar, close to its weakest point since July, according to the same data provider. The dollar was broadly softer across markets on Thursday as investors reacted to the U.S. midterm elections. For investors in Hong Kong and Singapore holding Thai equities or bonds, a firmer baht adds to returns in their home currency, while for Thai exporters it trims the value of overseas sales when converted back.

S&P keeps Thailand at BBB+

S&P affirmed the rating on Nov. 4, The Nation reported, pointing to Thailand's strong external finances, including substantial international reserves and its position as a net external creditor.

The agency's assessment was not all positive. S&P forecast growth of 2.3% in 2026, down from 2.4% in 2025, and expects net general government debt to rise from about 40% of gross domestic product at the end of 2025 to 47% by 2029, according to The Nation. It expects the current account to be broadly balanced this year before returning to surpluses of roughly 2.1% to 2.4% of GDP from 2027, as exports expand and energy prices normalize.

S&P also expects GDP per capita to rise from about $8,000 in 2024 to $9,100 in 2026, partly because of the baht's appreciation, the newspaper said.

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas on Thursday cited the stable outlooks from Fitch Ratings, Moody's and S&P as a sign of confidence in government policy. The government would keep "prioritising fiscal discipline," he said, according to The Nation.

Exporters lift forecasts

Trade is the other support. The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking, a leading business group, on Wednesday raised its forecast for 2026 export growth to 18% to 22%, from 12% to 16% previously, the Bangkok Post reported. It also lifted its economic growth forecast for the year to 2.4% to 2.6%, from 2.1% to 2.5%.

The Bank of Thailand moved in the same direction a week earlier. It raised its 2026 growth forecast to 2.4% from 2.3% and its 2027 forecast to 2.1% from 1.8%, citing stronger exports and private investment, according to Don Nakornthab, secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee. The central bank held its policy rate at 1% at that meeting, the fourth straight hold, according to Trading Economics.

Strong exports have not translated into a trade surplus. Thailand's trade deficit widened to $5.86 billion in September from $2.48 billion in August, according to Trading Economics, as imports of intermediate goods rose with shipments. The gap came even as September exports hit a record, and the baht weakened through October.

Weak spending at home limits the upside

The central bank is less upbeat about domestic demand. Don said at the post-meeting press conference that the unemployment rate had risen to 1.1% from a recent low of 0.8%, a sign of growing fragility in the labor market, the Bangkok Post reported. The bank cut its 2026 private consumption growth forecast to 2.3% from 2.6%, and said consumption growth would slow to 1.6% this year without government stimulus.

The central bank expects consumption growth of just 1.7% in 2027, after the government's "Thais Help Thais Plus" co-payment scheme expires this month. It now estimates the program will add 0.4 percentage point to GDP this year, down from 0.5 point previously.

Household debt remains a drag. The household debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 85.2% in the second quarter from 86.7% at the end of last year, according to the Bangkok Post, still above most regional peers.

That mix leaves the baht caught between two forces. Rising exports and a stable sovereign rating support the currency, while weak consumption and a widening trade gap argue for keeping interest rates low.

Thailand's next monthly trade figures, for October, are the next test of whether the export upgrades hold.