Thailand's exports rose 24% from a year earlier in September to a record $38.44 billion, driven by electronics sold to the U.S., but imports grew twice as fast and pushed the monthly trade deficit to $5.86 billion, according to figures released by Thailand's Trade Policy and Strategy Office on Oct. 26.

For investors in Asia, the numbers show how deeply Thailand has been drawn into the AI hardware supply chain. The same boom that is lifting shipments of servers, circuit boards and drives is also pulling in record amounts of imported components and capital equipment, which means the baht now gets less support from goods trade than headline export growth suggests.

Thailand's Exports Beat Forecasts on Electronics

The September gain was the 27th straight month of export growth, The Nation reported. It was well ahead of the 17.9% median forecast in a Reuters poll and the 16.3% expected by SCB Economic Intelligence Center, according to Thailand Business News. Stripping out oil-related products, gold and military goods, exports rose 28.2%.

Electronics did most of the work. Shipments in that category rose 66.3% from a year earlier, up from 54.2% growth in August, Thailand Business News reported. Industrial exports as a whole grew 25.4% to $33.04 billion, the 30th consecutive monthly increase, according to InfoQuest.

The U.S. took 26.5% of Thai exports, The Nation reported, and shipments there rose 50.1%, according to InfoQuest. Exports to the European Union rose 35%, to Australia 37.7%, to Taiwan 32.6% and to Hong Kong 78.4%, InfoQuest said.

Several markets shrank. Exports to the Middle East fell 8.7%, InfoQuest reported, and The Nation said the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to weigh on that region. Shipments to Russia and the CIS dropped 12.4%, to South Asia 2.7% and to Switzerland 63.8%.

Nantapong Chiralerspong, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, tied the export strength to demand for electronics linked to AI, data centers and global technology investment, The Nation reported.

Record Imports Widen Thailand's Trade Deficit

Imports rose 50.4% to $44.30 billion, a monthly record, accelerating from 25.1% growth in August. The Reuters poll median had pointed to a 31.3% rise. The resulting deficit was more than three times the $1.83 billion gap economists polled by Reuters had expected, Thailand Business News reported, and more than double August's $2.48 billion.

Capital goods led the jump, rising 92.3% from 33.9% growth in August, and imports of computers, equipment and components rose 317.1%, Thailand Business News reported. Imports of raw materials and semi-finished goods, a group that includes gold, rose 41.2%, and fuel imports increased 45.7%, Thai business daily Thansettakij reported. Raw materials and semi-finished goods made up 41.7% of September imports, capital goods 33.5% and fuel 11.9%, the paper said.

Over the first nine months of 2026, exports grew 19.6% to $304.59 billion while imports rose 37.8% to $348.28 billion, leaving a cumulative deficit of $43.69 billion, according to Kaohoon International.

The pattern matches what the central bank has been seeing. The Bank of Thailand has held its policy rate at 1% and raised its export forecast on AI-related demand, while the same investment wave has lifted private investment tied to data centers.

Farm Exports Lag as Forecasts Point to a Slowdown in 2027

Thailand's traditional exports are not sharing in the boom. Agricultural and agro-industrial shipments fell 1.9% to $39.92 billion in January through September, The Nation reported. Rice exports dropped 16.6% to $2.96 billion, cassava products fell 28.4% and sugar declined 21.8%.

September brought a small improvement, with farm and agro-industrial exports up 2.5%, the second monthly gain. An economist at Rangsit University told The Nation that Thai farm goods face "relatively high production costs and prices" and strong competition, especially from Vietnam.

Among larger manufactured goods, motor vehicle exports slipped 0.9% to $16.90 billion in the first nine months, while hard-disk drives rose 18.9% to $10.43 billion and integrated circuits climbed 19% to $10.06 billion.

The Trade Policy and Strategy Office expects full-year export growth of 15% to 16% and said 19% is possible if electronics and AI investment stay strong. At 19%, annual exports would reach about $404.88 billion, a record, The Nation reported. To reach 15%, shipments need to average at least $28.89 billion a month from October to December, InfoQuest reported, well below September's pace. The Bank of Thailand, which counts trade on a different basis, expects exports to grow 22% this year.

The office has penciled in only 2% to 4% export growth for 2027 because of the high base this year, according to InfoQuest, against the central bank's 15% projection. Thailand Business News listed the risks to that view as possible new U.S. Section 301 tariffs, a lapse of the U.S.-China trade truce after Jan. 10, 2027, conflict in the Middle East and any slowdown in global AI spending.