India's net direct tax collections rose 11.8% from a year earlier to INR 14.42 trillion between April 1 and Nov. 10, provisional Income Tax Department data released on Wednesday showed, as strong corporate payments and a surge in securities transaction tax offset a sharp rise in refunds.

The total reached 53.5% of the government's budget estimate of INR 26.97 trillion for the fiscal year ending in March 2027. For investors in Asian bond and currency markets, the figures are a check on whether New Delhi can hold its deficit path without cutting spending late in the year. Revenue is coming in, but the mix is shifting toward companies and the stock market and away from personal income tax.

Refunds slow India's net tax growth

Gross direct tax collections, before refunds, rose 14% to INR 17.50 trillion from INR 15.35 trillion a year earlier, according to the Economic Times. Refunds grew faster, climbing 25.9% to INR 3.08 trillion from INR 2.45 trillion, Business Standard reported. That gap pulled net growth below the gross figure.

Growth has also cooled over the past month. As of Oct. 14, net collections had risen 13.21% to INR 13.38 trillion, according to an earlier Economic Times report.

Hitting the full-year target requires net growth of about 15.3% over the INR 23.40 trillion collected in the fiscal year that ended in March 2026, Business Standard calculated. Collections so far are growing more slowly than that.

Rohinton Sidhwa, a partner at Deloitte India, told Business Standard that refunds are no longer slowing, a reversal from last year's trend. He said that "refund outflows are generally higher during the first three quarters of the financial year," and that smaller refunds and stronger advance tax payments in the January to March quarter should help the government reach its goal. He said current trends suggest the target is within reach.

Corporate tax outpaces personal income tax

Companies carried most of the gains. Net corporate tax receipts rose 17.8% to INR 6.32 trillion from INR 5.36 trillion. Gross corporate tax rose 16% to INR 8.01 trillion, while corporate refunds increased 9.6% to INR 1.70 trillion. Sidhwa linked the corporate growth to strong company earnings.

The non-corporate category, which covers individuals, Hindu Undivided Families, firms and other entities, grew much more slowly. Net collections rose 5.3% to INR 7.56 trillion from INR 7.18 trillion. Gross non-corporate receipts rose 10.7% to INR 8.95 trillion, but refunds in this category jumped 54% to INR 1.39 trillion from INR 901.27 billion a year earlier.

Non-corporate taxes still make up the larger share of gross collections, at about 51.1%, against roughly 45.8% for corporate tax, according to Business Standard.

Some recent company results support the corporate picture. Larsen & Toubro reported higher profit and record order inflows for its September quarter.

Securities transaction tax jumps 52%

Securities transaction tax, a levy on trades in shares and derivatives, was the fastest-growing major part of direct tax revenue. Receipts rose 51.6% to INR 540.78 billion from INR 356.82 billion a year earlier.

Sidhwa told Business Standard the increase came mainly from rate increases announced in the previous year's budget. The Economic Times tied the gain to higher receipts from market transactions and more retail trading.

Higher trading activity has continued into November. Foreign investors have returned as buyers of Indian equities this month after selling in October, a shift Capital Times covered when the Sensex jumped on foreign buying. More turnover means more securities transaction tax, though the levy remains a small part of the total, at roughly 3% of gross collections.

What the data means for the budget

The pace of collections feeds directly into the government's deficit arithmetic. Capital Times reported earlier on how much of the full-year fiscal deficit target New Delhi used in the first half of the fiscal year.

The data released this week leaves the government needing about INR 12.55 trillion more in net direct taxes over less than five months to meet its estimate. Deloitte's Sidhwa is counting on advance tax payments in the final quarter to close much of that gap. The government budgeted INR 26.97 trillion, and every week of refunds running 26% above last year's pace makes the final stretch steeper.