One Marina, a To Kwa Wan housing project developed by Sino Land, China Merchants Land and the Urban Renewal Authority, sold all 138 flats in its second batch on Tuesday, raising nearly HK$1.2 billion, according to The Standard. The project has now sold 289 units for more than HK$2.5 billion across two launches in five days.

The sellout came the same day Citi Research told clients that Hong Kong home prices should rise another 6% in 2027. For investors in Hong Kong developers, the two pieces of news point the same way: buyers are back for well-priced new flats, and the question for next year is how much of that demand turns into profit.

One Marina draws crowds, then raises prices

The first round on Friday set the tone. The project collected more than 10,000 checks by the close of registration, an oversubscription of more than 71 times for 138 price-listed flats, The Standard reported. Those units, a mix of 14 one-bedroom and 124 two-bedroom flats of 339 to 470 square feet, were priced after discounts at HK$5.98 million to HK$9.57 million, or HK$16,959 to HK$20,991 per square foot.

All 138 sold that day for more than HK$1 billion. Buyers made 30 bulk purchases, including five groups that each took six two-bedroom flats. Separately, 11 three-bedroom flats went by tender for nearly HK$200 million, with the most expensive, a 690-square-foot unit, fetching more than HK$19.4 million, or HK$28,125 per square foot.

The developers moved quickly. The second batch, released over the weekend, carried higher prices: HK$7.17 million to HK$11.28 million after discounts, or HK$17,868 to HK$23,227 per square foot, for two-bedroom flats of 380 to 505 square feet that included newly added sea-view units. The cheapest, a 381-square-foot flat, cost HK$7.17 million, or HK$18,816 per square foot.

Demand held. Sino Land executive director Victor Tin said a significant number of the buyers were young, The Standard reported. The project still sells mainly to people who will live in the flats, with investors making up about 30% of buyers, according to Midland Realty. One group of Midland clients planned to spend about HK$25 million on three units to rent out.

The pattern of opening at sharp prices and lifting them on the next batch has become common this autumn. Centaline said in October that several developers had launched new projects at aggressive prices, pulling buyers away from the resale market, where its index had slipped from its 2026 high.

Citi Research: Hong Kong home prices to rise 6% in 2027

Citi Research expects primary home sales to rise 3% in 2027 and prices to climb 6%, according to its outlook reported by The Standard on Tuesday. That would take prices back to roughly their October 2022 level by the end of 2027, still about 11% below the August 2021 peak.

Rents are forecast to rise another 6% next year, which Citi said would leave them 15% above their previous peak. Residential rents have already set records this year, as official data for September showed.

The bank said lower funding pressure, a stronger yuan, record IPO fundraising, talent inflows and busier transactions all supported the market in 2026. It expects those drivers to stay in place but lose force. Further yuan gains look less certain after two strong years, IPO activity is unlikely to repeat record levels, approvals under talent schemes may slow, and views on the 2027 U.S. rate path are divided, Citi said.

Citi described the next stage as a "second phase of recovery" in which the focus moves from whether demand has returned to whether owners can monetize it. That means higher selling prices, better development margins, positive rental reversions and stronger recurring income. For listed developers, that shifts the debate from sales volumes to margins.

On offices, Citi expects the rental recovery to speed up to 8% in 2027, which would still leave rents 27% below their previous peak. Grade A office rents overall should be flat in 2026 and rise just 1% in 2027, as supply in non-core districts is absorbed, the bank said.

Fewer completions support developers' pricing power

Supply data help explain why developers have room to raise prices. About 9,642 private homes were completed in the first nine months of 2026, down 27.8% from 13,354 a year earlier, the Rating and Valuation Department said last Thursday. That is about 56.8% of the government's full-year completion forecast of 16,975 units.

The decline was concentrated in the urban areas. Kowloon completions fell 77.3% to 1,836 units and Hong Kong Island's dropped 18.8% to 1,996, while the New Territories more than doubled to 5,810. Completions of flats smaller than 431 square feet, the size that dominates launches like One Marina, fell 43.2% to 5,079 units. Only about 655 units were finished in September.

That leaves a tight pipeline of urban new flats for the final quarter. Developers would need to complete more than 7,300 homes in October to December to reach the government's full-year figure, based on the department's numbers. October's Rating and Valuation Department price index, due later this month, will show whether the brisk new-home sales have begun to lift resale prices again.