Canada's exports to China rose 39.3% in the first eight months of 2026 from a year earlier, according to Global Affairs Canada, as Chinese buyers returned to Canadian canola after Beijing cut its tariffs on the oilseed in March. Shipments to China reached C$4.26 billion in August alone, up 1.5% from July.

For Asian food processors, crushers and commodity traders, the numbers show how quickly a political settlement can redirect a major agricultural flow. China took 2.58 million metric tons of Canadian canola seed between January and August, about 37% of everything Canada shipped, according to Canola Council of Canada figures drawn from Statistics Canada data and updated on Oct. 14. That makes China again the largest buyer of the seed, ahead of Japan at 1.19 million tons.

Statistics Canada publishes September trade figures on Nov. 4, Ottawa time. They will be the first to cover a full month after new U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods took effect on Aug. 22, a test of how far Asian demand can offset weaker sales south of the border.

Canola trade with China resumes after tariff cut

The recovery follows a deal announced in Beijing on Jan. 16. Under it, China's tariff on Canadian canola seed was expected to fall to 15% on March 1, and the 100% duty on canola meal was to be lifted on that date and stay off until at least the end of 2026, the Canola Council said at the time. Both changes took effect on March 1. China set its additional tariff on canola meal at zero from March 1 to Dec. 31, 2026, and a final anti-dumping ruling put a 5.9% duty on canola seed from the same date, for a combined rate of about 14.9% with the standard 9% tariff.

The duties had been a response to Canada's 100% tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, and they had all but shut the trade. The council put canola and canola product exports to China at about C$5 billion in 2024 and said the 2025 total would likely be less than half that.

Meal has come back alongside seed. China bought 1.07 million tons of Canadian canola meal from January to August, second only to the United States at 3.07 million tons. In August alone, Canada sent 278,571 tons of seed and 295,172 tons of meal to China, the council's data show.

Canola oil is the gap. The January deal did not cover it, and China has taken almost none this year: the council's table records 1 ton of oil shipped to China through August, against 1.99 million tons to the United States. Chris Davison, the council's president and chief executive, called the tariff dispute "a political issue requiring a political solution" when the deal was announced, and the industry said it would keep pressing for relief on oil.

Analysts had cautioned that the reopening would not clear the Prairie surplus quickly. Writing in The Western Producer in late January, market analyst Bruce Burnett noted that Canadian canola exports to China in the March to July period had historically averaged about 1.5 million tons, and that ending stocks were still expected to rise.

Canada's other Asian markets: Japan down, South Korea and India up

China is not the only Asian partner growing. Exports to South Korea were up 22.9% in the year to August and those to India rose 37.7%, according to the Global Affairs Canada report, though both fell in August from July. Japan moved the other way: Canadian exports there were down 6.8% year to date, at C$1.25 billion in August.

Imports tell a different story. Canada imported C$6.32 billion from China in August, up 6.3% from July, leaving a sizable deficit with its second-largest trading partner. Statistics Canada said higher imports from China in August were spread across various products, while purchases of passenger cars and light trucks from Japan and South Korea fell.

U.S. front-loading pulled exports back toward America in August

The broader August figures pointed away from Asia. Exports to the United States jumped 8.1% as companies rushed goods across the border before the Aug. 22 tariffs, and Canada's surplus with the U.S. widened to C$11.2 billion from C$6.1 billion, which Statistics Canada called the largest positive monthly change on record.

Exports to countries other than the United States fell 8.5% in August after a record in July, cutting their share of total goods exports to 30.2% from 33.9%. Statistics Canada traced most of the drop to lower shipments of unwrought gold to Britain, energy to the Netherlands and aircraft and crude oil to France. Overall, Canada posted a merchandise trade surplus of C$4.2 billion in August, well above the C$1.55 billion economists expected, Reuters reported.

Energy did much of the work. Energy exports rose 4.7% to C$19.03 billion, led by a 17.4% jump in refined products as diesel went to Peru, Britain, the United States and the Netherlands. Prince Owusu, a senior economist at Export Development Canada, told Reuters that diesel might offset part of the tariff hit in September.

Higher energy prices are also feeding inflation at home, one reason the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate to 2.5% on Oct. 28. On the energy side of Canada's Asia trade, the next leg is liquefied natural gas from British Columbia, where a Blackstone-led group agreed to invest $3.1 billion in Mitsubishi's LNG Canada unit.

The September release on Nov. 4 will show whether the non-U.S. share of exports climbs back toward July's record, and whether canola shipments to China held near August's pace as the new crop year began.