Imports at major U.S. container ports are set to ease through the end of 2026 after an unusually long peak season, with September volume reaching 2.37 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU), up 12.6% from a year earlier, the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates said on Monday.

For factories and freight lines across Asia, the Global Port Tracker report offers a read on how much U.S. retail demand is left in the pipeline. Its answer is that the holiday rush has largely shipped, and that early 2027 looks weaker. The tracker forecasts March 2027 imports at 1.92 million TEU, down 11.2% from a year earlier.

NRF Global Port Tracker forecasts

September was the busiest month of the year and the third-busiest since the tracker began keeping records, behind only May 2022 (2.4 million TEU) and July 2025 (2.39 million TEU), according to the report. Volume rose 3.4% from August.

Ports had not yet reported October figures. Hackett Associates projected the month at 2.26 million TEU, up 9.1% year over year. November is forecast at 2.05 million TEU and December at 2.03 million TEU, gains of 1.2% and 1.3% respectively.

Those numbers would take 2026 to 26 million TEU, 2% more than the 25.4 million TEU handled in 2025. The first half of the year totaled 12.7 million TEU, up 1.1%, so most of the annual gain came after midyear.

The outlook then turns negative. January 2027 is forecast at 2.04 million TEU, down 3% from a year earlier, and February at 1.89 million TEU, down 0.5%, before the sharper drop in March. Part of that decline reflects tough comparisons with the strong spring of 2026.

The tracker covers Los Angeles and Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast, seven East Coast ports from New York and New Jersey to Miami, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.

Tariffs drove a second surge

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, tied the long season to trade policy. Retailers pulled goods forward in 2025 ahead of tariff increases, he said, and that surge looked finished early this year after the Supreme Court struck down the so-called Liberation Day tariffs. New tariffs introduced in the second quarter then set off another wave of imports from May through mid-October, Hackett said, supported by households that kept spending “despite rising inflation.” (Capital Times has also covered U.S. Section 301 and forced-labor tariff actions.)

China has been a large part of that wave. Separate data from supply-chain software firm Descartes showed China-origin container imports reached 924,454 TEU in September, up 21.2% from a year earlier and 4.5% from August. China's share of total U.S. container imports climbed to 36.3% from 34.0% in August, though volume remained 9.6% below the July 2024 record, according to the Descartes report as published by the American Journal of Transportation.

Descartes, which counts a wider set of ports than the NRF tracker, put total September U.S. container imports at 2,546,261 TEU, the highest September on record and up 10.3% year over year. Other Asian suppliers had mixed months. Shipments from Taiwan rose 12.9% from a year earlier and those from South Korea 9.9%, while Vietnam gained 4.3%. From August to September, imports from Thailand fell 9.4% and those from Indonesia 9.7%.

Port backups and a strike deadline

The heavy flow has strained parts of the U.S. network. Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy, said the volumes had caused backups at some ports, particularly on the West Coast, where cargo has waited for long periods to be moved onto rail cars. He said most holiday merchandise has already arrived.

Descartes found transit delays rose in September at eight of the top 10 U.S. gateways. New York and New Jersey saw the largest increase, 1.5 days to 8.3 days, and Houston rose 1.4 days to 7.2 days. Seattle was the only port to improve.

Labor is the other risk. A strike was averted early this month when International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 26, which represents watchmen at several container terminals in Los Angeles and Long Beach, agreed to a short-term contract extension with the Pacific Maritime Association, the NRF said. The contract has been extended three times for a few days at a time, and the latest extension runs through Nov. 20, with no long-term deal in place since the previous contract expired in July 2025.

For Asian exporters, the next markers are actual October port counts, due in the next tracker update, and whether Local 26 and the employers reach a deal before the Nov. 20 deadline.