Trade between Canada and China reached C$36.78 billion in the third quarter, the highest quarterly total on record, as Canadian crude shipments to China rose 159%, according to figures from the China Institute at the University of Alberta reported by CTV News on Tuesday.

The jump matters for Asian buyers of energy and farm goods. Oil now reaches China in volume from Canada's Pacific coast, and Beijing's tariff relief on canola meal, peas, lobster and crab has been extended by two years. Prime Minister Mark Carney leaves on Wednesday for a tour of Asia that includes the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in the Philippines, the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in China, where he is expected to meet President Xi Jinping, and the Francophonie summit in Cambodia.

Crude leads Canada's exports to China

Energy drove most of the gain. Crude exports to China averaged 327,000 barrels a day in the quarter, the institute's data showed, largely because of added capacity on the Trans Mountain pipeline, which runs from Alberta to the Vancouver area. Supply disruptions in the Middle East also lifted the price of oil Canada sold to China and the United States, CTV reported.

Alberta and Saskatchewan accounted for nearly 78% of the overall increase. Canada's domestic exports to China rose by about C$4.32 billion from a year earlier.

Philippe Rheault, the institute's director, said exports would hit record highs this year and "the numbers are accelerating."

Farm shipments rose from a low base. Canola meal exports climbed to C$360.3 million in the quarter from C$12.9 million a year earlier. Pea exports rose to C$147.6 million from C$9.2 million. Beef sales reached C$181.4 million after being close to zero a year before.

The scale still favours Washington. Canada sells roughly 10 times as much to the United States as it does to China, according to CTV. Carney has set a goal of doubling exports of goods and services to markets outside the United States by 2035. Earlier figures showed Canada's exports to China up 39% this year as canola returned.

Canola and seafood relief extended to 2028

The quarterly record followed a decision in Beijing on Nov. 4. Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu and China's Commerce Minister Wang Wentao agreed to extend China's lower tariffs on Canadian canola meal, peas, lobster and crab to the end of 2028, Global Affairs Canada said. The relief had been due to expire at the end of 2026, The Canadian Press reported.

The decision came at a meeting of the Canada-China Joint Economic and Trade Commission, the first held at ministerial level. The measures date from a preliminary arrangement reached during Carney's visit to Beijing in January, when China also restored access for Canadian beef. In return, Ottawa allowed Chinese electric vehicles into Canada, CTV reported, and Canada will keep remission measures for certain Chinese steel and aluminum products not made in Canada until the end of 2028.

Sidhu's figures for the period since March, when China cut the tariffs, show the effect. Compared with a year earlier, canola seed exports rose 84% to C$1.91 billion, canola meal more than doubled to C$390 million, peas rose to C$345 million from C$107 million and lobster gained 57% to C$200 million, according to The Canadian Press. Beef exports from January to August totalled C$363.2 million, nearly double all of 2021's sales.

China was Canada's second-largest single-country merchandise trading partner in 2025, with two-way trade of C$125.7 billion, the government said. Canada exported C$35.0 billion of goods to China and imported C$90.6 billion. Ottawa wants to raise exports to China by 50% by 2030. Sidhu said the sectors covered by the arrangement support more than 600,000 Canadian jobs.

Leverage and dependence

Some analysts warn about concentration. Vina Nadjibulla, chief executive of the Centre for Strategic Statecraft, noted that nearly 70% of Canada's canola seed exports went to China in 2024, which she said gave Beijing leverage it has used in political disputes. Canada should cut strategic dependence "not simply shift it from one major power to another," she told CTV.

Nadjibulla also told The Canadian Press that the Chinese steel and aluminum access in the deal will figure in Ottawa's trade talks with Washington. Relations between Ottawa and Beijing fell to a low after China detained Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor following the 2018 arrest of Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver.

For Asian refiners, the Pacific route gives another source of crude outside the Middle East. For Chinese crushers and feed makers, the 2028 date gives two more years of tariff certainty on canola meal. Talks on other seafood products are continuing, The Canadian Press reported.

The next test comes at the APEC summit in Shenzhen later in November, where Carney's meeting with Xi will be his second visit to China as prime minister.