Vietnam's two-way goods trade passed US$1 trillion in the first 10 months of 2026 for the first time, reaching an estimated $1.01 trillion, up 32.3% from a year earlier, the Ministry of Industry and Trade's Agency of Foreign Trade said on Oct. 29. October alone produced an estimated trade surplus of $6.8 billion.

That surplus matters for anyone with money in Vietnam's supply chain. It was the second monthly surplus in a row after most of the year ran in deficit, and it pulled the cumulative January to October shortfall down to about $12.7 billion, according to the agency. The swing suggests the heavy import bill for factory machinery and components earlier in the year is now turning into finished goods heading out of the country.

Vietnam's exports run far ahead of target

Exports rose an estimated 27.4% to $499 billion over the 10 months, the agency said. That is close to double the government's full-year export growth goal of 15% to 16%, a target Viet Nam News, in a report carried by Asia News Network, said the country is now on course to meet or beat.

Trade turnover in October was an estimated $122.2 billion, up 47.6% from October 2025. The ministry did not publish separate monthly export and import figures in its estimate. Taken together, the turnover and surplus figures imply October exports of roughly $64.5 billion and imports of about $57.7 billion.

Processed and manufactured goods made up 87.4% of exports. The agency said both domestic companies and foreign-invested firms increased shipments, and that sales grew strongly to China, the United States, the European Union, South Korea and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. It gave no figures by market.

The October numbers are ministry estimates; a full product and market breakdown will come with official data.

From deficit to surplus in two months

The turnaround has been fast. Official September data, reported by the Vietnam News Agency on Oct. 3, showed a surplus of $1.27 billion, ending nine straight months of deficits. September exports rose 39.1% from a year earlier to $59.48 billion, while imports climbed to $58.21 billion.

At the end of September the year-to-date deficit stood at $19.42 billion. Imports for the nine months had grown 36.7%, faster than exports at 24.5%, and 94.1% of everything Vietnam bought abroad was classed as production materials, including machinery and raw inputs. Foreign-invested companies accounted for 80.7% of nine-month exports.

The partner breakdown for the first nine months shows how the surplus is built. Vietnam ran a $122.62 billion surplus with the United States, its largest export market, and a $36.06 billion surplus with the EU. It ran a $121.48 billion deficit with China, its largest source of imports, and a $43.75 billion deficit with South Korea, which nearly doubled from a year earlier.

That pattern fits the wider regional picture. South Korea's exports have surged this autumn on chip demand, with October shipments up 93.7% to $115.3 billion, and Vietnam is one of the places where Korean components are assembled into finished electronics. In Malaysia, September exports hit a record on similar demand for chips and AI hardware.

Hanoi drafts a 2030 trade strategy

The ministry is also drafting a goods trade strategy running to 2030, with a longer view to 2045, according to Viet Nam News. It aims for average export growth of 15% to 16% a year from 2026 to 2030 and import growth of 12% to 13%, and wants a steady surplus worth 3% to 6% of total exports over that period.

The draft takes direct aim at concentration risk. By 2030, no single market would take more than 25% of Vietnam's exports and no single supplier would provide more than 35% of its imports. The combined share of the three largest export markets would fall below 55%. The United States, Vietnam's largest export market, is the main test: it alone produced a $122.62 billion surplus for Vietnam in the first nine months.

The plan also wants domestic firms to supply 28% to 30% of exports by 2030, up from 19.3% in the first nine months of this year, and high-tech products to make up about half of manufactured exports.

For the fourth quarter, the ministry listed export promotion, market diversification and stronger compliance as priorities, along with fuller use of existing free trade agreements. With $499 billion shipped through October, Vietnam needs about $101 billion in November and December to reach $600 billion in exports for the year, a pace well below what it managed in October.