Swiss watch exports grew for a fourth straight month in September, lifted mainly by a rebound in shipments to the United States. Hong Kong posted a modest gain, while the picture for mainland China remained unclear.

Exports rose 11.7% from a year earlier to about 2.2 billion Swiss francs, according to figures from the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry (FH) reported on Oct. 20 by Swiss news agency Keystone-SDA and its Italian-language service, ATS. Keystone-SDA put the total at 2.23 billion francs.

Volume grew faster than value. The industry shipped 1.4 million timepieces in September, up 19.9%, ATS reported.

The September gain followed increases of 11.2% in June, 9.6% in July and 9.1% in August, after a 16.6% slump in April and a nearly flat May. Exports for the first nine months of 2026 were up 2.7% at 19.5 billion francs.

Hong Kong Edges Up, China Unclear

Shipments to Hong Kong rose 3% to 161 million francs, according to ATS. Keystone-SDA's English report also put Hong Kong's gain at 3%. That made the city the fifth-largest destination for Swiss watches in September, behind the United States, France, Japan and Britain.

Mainland China ranked sixth, taking 130 million francs of watches, ATS reported. Accounts of the trend differed sharply. ATS, in reports carried by Ticinonline and by Italy's trade promotion agency ICE, said shipments to China rose 5.8%. Keystone-SDA's English service said they fell 14.2%, a decline it said the federation attributed to an unfavorable base effect.

The agency reports also gave different growth rates for Japan, at 8% and 12.3%, and for France. Capital Times could not reconcile the figures from the reports available, and the federation's own statistics remain the reference.

Whichever figure holds, China's weight has shrunk. Exports to the mainland fell 5% in the first half of 2026, and the federation said China, still the industry's second-largest market at the end of 2024, had dropped to sixth place, JCK reported in July.

Japan took 177 million francs of watches in September, and Britain 164 million francs, down 5.2%, according to ATS. The six largest markets together accounted for 53% of exports.

A Tariff Base Effect in the US

The United States remained the biggest destination at 293 million francs, up about 86% from a year earlier. The federation said the jump mainly reflected a favorable base effect, according to Keystone-SDA.

Shipments to the US had slumped after a 39% US tariff on many Swiss goods took effect in August 2025. Companies had also shipped large volumes early to reduce tariff costs, the agency reported.

Keystone-SDA also reported that shifting trade flows tied to US tariff policy had turned France into a logistics hub, because US duties on imports from the European Union are lower.

Cheaper Watches Lead

Growth was strongest at the lower end of the price range. Exports of watches priced under 200 francs rose 30.2% in value, and those priced from 200 to 500 francs jumped 52.1%, ATS reported. The 500 to 3,000 franc band grew 11.8%, and watches priced above 3,000 francs rose 9.9%.

That pattern matches the first half of the year, when JCK reported that the number of mechanical watches priced under 500 francs rose 23.8% even as total export value slipped.

What to Watch

In July, the federation said forecasts for 2026 pointed to “relatively stable performance compared with 2025,” JCK reported. The nine-month total is now modestly ahead of last year. US comparisons in the coming months will continue to be measured against the period after the tariff took effect in August 2025.

For Hong Kong's collectors, attention now turns to the salerooms. Phillips holds The Hong Kong Watch Auction: XXIII on Nov. 21-22, according to the auction house's website. Its spring sale in the city raised HK$403.8 million, up 90% from a year earlier, the company said in May.