Hong Kong expects visitors to spend HK$238.1 billion in the city this year, about 10% more than in 2025, and kept its forecast of 53.8 million arrivals, the government said on Monday after a meeting of its Tourism Strategy Committee.

For retailers, hotels and landlords in Hong Kong, the spending number matters more than the headcount. A 10% rise in tourism expenditure against an 8% rise in arrivals would mean the average visitor spends a little more, a shift that matters for local retail property and consumer stocks.

Hong Kong tourism forecast rests on the final quarter

The Hong Kong Tourism Board reported to the committee that arrivals reached 40.7 million in the first nine months of 2026, up 12% from a year earlier, according to the government statement. August brought about 5.46 million visitors, the highest monthly total since the pandemic.

The full-year projection of 53.8 million is the same figure the board set out in its 2026/27 work plan earlier this year, The Standard reported in April. At the time, the board put 2025 arrivals at about 49.9 million, which makes the target an 8% increase.

Holding that figure requires a strong finish. Subtracting nine months of arrivals from the target leaves about 13.1 million visitors needed in October, November and December, or an average of roughly 4.37 million a month. That is above September's total of about 4.03 million, though well below the August peak.

September itself was strong by recent standards. Arrivals rose 22% from a year earlier, and mainland arrivals climbed close to 30% on the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday and a run of festive events, the tourism board said in figures carried by Xinhua. Mainland visitors totaled 31.9 million from January through September, up 14%, or roughly four of every five arrivals. Capital Times reported the September arrivals data in detail last month.

October opened with the National Day Golden Week holiday, a peak period for mainland travel to the city.

Spending per head has been the weak spot

The challenge for Hong Kong's tourism trade has been converting crowds into receipts. In its work plan, the board said overnight visitors stayed an average of 3.1 nights in 2025, down 0.1 night from the year before, and spent HK$5,503 per head, about level with 2024, according to The Standard. It attributed the shorter stays partly to easier travel between Hong Kong and mainland cities, which lets visitors plan flexible trips and return home sooner.

The board also cited a strong U.S. dollar, to which the Hong Kong dollar is pegged, as a drag on spending, since it makes the city relatively expensive for visitors paying in other currencies. For 2026 it projected per capita spending by overnight visitors to edge up only 0.5%.

Against that backdrop, the new HK$238.1 billion estimate implies spending growth running ahead of arrivals. Secretary for Culture, Sports and Tourism Rosanna Law, who chairs the committee, said the government's work would focus on building infrastructure, reforming systems and promoting Hong Kong, with the aim of raising the industry's economic contribution. Committee members discussed attracting more high-value overnight visitors and selling multi-destination trips that combine Hong Kong with mainland cities, according to the statement.

Those priorities follow Hong Kong's first Five-Year Plan, for 2026 to 2030, which aims to make the city a core demonstration zone for multi-destination tourism and a southern gateway for overseas visitors entering the mainland, the statement said.

Retail sales have followed the visitors

Shops have benefited. The value of total retail sales rose 5.6% from a year earlier in August to a provisional HK$32.1 billion, the 16th consecutive monthly increase, the Census and Statistics Department said. Sales for the first eight months were up 8.5% in value and 6.1% in volume.

The gains were uneven. Jewelry, watches and valuable gifts, a category closely tied to visitor spending, rose 11.9% in August, a trend Capital Times covered in jewelry and watch sales. Department store sales fell 2.6% and clothing slipped 0.5%.

Seasonally adjusted figures were softer. Retail sales value fell 4.6% in the three months through August compared with the preceding three months, and volume fell 3.4%, the department said. A government spokesman said continued growth in visitor arrivals and a series of upcoming mega-events should support the retail sector, while officials would watch the effect of external headwinds on local consumption.

The next test comes in two releases: the department's provisional retail sales figures for September, and the tourism board's October arrivals count, the first month of the quarter Hong Kong needs to average about 4.37 million visitors to meet its target.