Fertilizer exports from the Middle East have fallen by roughly 70% to 75% since the Iran war choked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler, even as its data show the region's oil exports outside Iran back at prewar levels.

Shipments dropped to 994,000 metric tons in September from 3.41 million tons in the same month of 2025, Madeleine Overgaard, Kpler's senior manager of agriculture data, said in comments reported by The National on Oct. 31. She expects volumes to stay near current depressed levels through year-end unless security in the region improves.

For importers, the shortfall matters more than the Gulf's share of world output suggests. The region makes only 10% to 12% of global urea but accounts for 30% to 40% of seaborne urea trade, according to the Kpler figures reported by The National, because China and India, the two biggest producers, absorb their output at home. The National cited India, one of the world's top rice and wheat growers, as a country that relies on those nutrients to lift crop yields.

Oil recovers, fertilizer does not

The gap with oil is wide. Non-Iranian oil flows from the Middle East averaged more than 24.5 million barrels a day in the week ended Oct. 18, according to preliminary Kpler data cited by The National on Oct. 21. That topped the 24.4 million barrels a day recorded in the week ended Feb. 22, just before the war began. The tally counts Hormuz transits, ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman, loadings at Fujairah and Omani ports, and Red Sea exports.

The National describes the strait itself as largely closed. About 19 commodity vessels a day crossed in the 10 days to Oct. 21, according to the Kpler data, compared with more than 100 ships a day before the conflict, the newspaper reported. Overgaard said repeated attacks on ships in transit corridors had made vessel owners and charterers reluctant to sail.

Gulf News gave a different picture for Saudi crude on Oct. 31, reporting that the kingdom had raised shipments through Hormuz, where it said flows were near prewar levels. Estimates of Saudi exports from three ship trackers differ by about 1.6 million barrels a day, the paper added.

Saudi Arabia has been moving fertilizer overland to its Red Sea ports, but the volumes moved that way have been too small to replace shipments through the strait, The National reported. The kingdom's western outlet is also carrying more oil. Red Sea exports, mainly from Yanbu, ran at about 2.5 million barrels a day in October, up from 2.4 million in September, according to Vortexa data cited by Gulf News. Drone attacks shut the East-West pipeline that feeds the coast on Sept. 10 and 11, Gulf News reported; it restarted Sept. 22 at reduced throughput.

The war began Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran, which then struck energy and civilian infrastructure in Gulf states. Qatar's LNG plants were badly damaged, The National reported, and QatarEnergy has since signed for U.S. supply from Woodside's Louisiana project while its own LNG exports remain disrupted.

Sulfur, substitutes and the cost of food

Sulfur supply is even more concentrated. The Gulf produces 25% to 30% of the world's sulfur and handles up to half of global seaborne trade in it, almost all of which passes through Hormuz, Kpler said. Large producers such as China and the U.S. consume nearly all the sulfur they recover, while Gulf suppliers sell most of theirs abroad.

Other suppliers are filling part of the hole. China has become the swing supplier of fertilizers and Russia has taken some of the displaced demand, Rystad Energy said. Oman and the U.S. have become key sources of LNG, a critical feedstock for fertilizer production in India. But Rystad senior analyst Rajeev Pandey said none of these alternatives fully closes the gap, and each comes at a higher price.

Overgaard said the shortage could show up in "reduced harvests and higher food inflation downstream next year." Worries about shortages could also lead farmers to plant less, The National reported.

Food prices are already rising. The Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% from a year earlier, the U.N. agency said on Oct. 2. Its cereal index jumped 5.1% in the month, and maize hit its highest level in more than three years. The agency tied part of the rise to Hormuz, saying shipping uncertainty there kept worries about fuel, fertilizer and freight costs alive and gave extra support to biofuel crops such as maize.

Asian staples are moving too. The FAO's rice index rose 1.4% in September as weather worries lifted Indica quotations, while palm oil prices climbed for a fourth straight month on strong import demand and concerns about dry weather in Southeast Asia, the agency said. Higher energy costs have already pushed several of Asia's central banks to tighten policy this year.

What to watch

Oil prices remain elevated. Brent crude for December delivery traded at $117.50 a barrel late on Oct. 30, Gulf News reported. A fire broke out near Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura terminal on Oct. 27, and the Houthis claimed a missile strike, the paper said.

The FAO publishes its October food price index on Nov. 6, the next official reading on whether fuel, fertilizer and freight costs are still lifting grain prices.