Ghana's annual inflation rate rose to 5.5% in October from 5.2% in September, the third straight monthly increase, as a sharp jump in services and transport costs outweighed falling food prices, the Ghana Statistical Service said last Wednesday.

The reading is still far below the 8% recorded in October 2025, and below the lower edge of the Bank of Ghana's 6% to 10% target band. But the direction has turned. Inflation bottomed at 3.2% in March and has climbed from 4.6% in July, according to figures Governor Johnson Pandit Asiama presented to lawmakers on Friday. For investors in Asia and elsewhere holding cedi assets, the question is whether the central bank's easing cycle is over. Its Monetary Policy Committee announces its next decision on Nov. 18.

Services, not food, drive Ghana's inflation

The composition of the October data matters more than the headline. Non-food inflation rose to 7.9% from 6.2%, and accounted for about 76 pesewas of every cedi of price increases, Government Statistician Alhassan Iddrisu said, according to Graphic Online. Food inflation slowed to 2.8% from 4% in September, and food prices fell 2% from the previous month.

Services inflation rose to 11.5% from 8.3%, nearly three times the 3.8% rate for goods, the Ghana News Agency reported. Transport was the fastest-rising division at 14.1%, up 8.4 percentage points in a single month, with transport prices up 8% in October alone. Housing, water and energy costs rose 10.5%.

Staples moved the other way. Guinea corn and sorghum were 28% cheaper than a year earlier, maize 27.2% cheaper and local rice 14.3% cheaper. Fresh tomatoes, a volatile item in the basket, more than doubled, up 119.3%.

On a monthly basis, the overall index fell 0.1% from September, after rising 1.1% the month before. That suggests part of the annual rise reflects an earlier jump in prices rather than a fresh acceleration in October.

The pressure is domestic. Locally produced items rose 6.9% and made up 86.4% of total inflation, while imported items rose 2.4%, unchanged from September. Iddrisu described the picture as "one national rate, many local experiences," pointing to regional gaps: the Ashanti Region recorded 9.7%, while the Northern Region posted a decline of 0.5%. Ashanti and Greater Accra together accounted for 60.2% of national inflation.

Bank of Ghana weighs its 14% policy rate

The Bank of Ghana cut its policy rate by 250 basis points to 15.5% in January and by a further 150 basis points to 14% in March, then held it at its May, July and September meetings, Asiama told the parliamentary Committee on Economy and Development on Nov. 6. He said the bank expects inflation to move back into its target band "in the coming quarters," and described policy as data-dependent rather than set on a fixed path.

The September statement from the committee said headline inflation was below the band's lower bound and was projected to move into it over the next few quarters. With inflation at 5.5% and the policy rate at 14%, the gap between the two remains wide, which gives the bank room to keep rates on hold even as prices pick up.

The cedi is part of the calculation. After appreciating 40.7% against the U.S. dollar in 2025, the currency had weakened about 9.5% this year by Sept. 18, according to the governor's statement. A weaker cedi typically feeds into import prices with a lag, although imported inflation was steady in October.

Reserves and growth after the IMF program

Ghana's gross international reserves stood at $12.05 billion, or 4.5 months of import cover, on Sept. 22, the central bank said, down from $13.8 billion at the end of 2025. The economy grew 6% in the second quarter after 6.4% in the first, according to the governor's figures. The September committee statement put non-oil growth at 5.4% in the second quarter, down from 8.5% a year earlier.

The IMF board completed the final review of Ghana's Extended Credit Facility in July and approved a 36-month Policy Coordination Instrument, a nonfinancing arrangement, the governor said. The first review under that instrument began in October.

For now, the October data gives the central bank little reason to cut. Services and transport costs are rising quickly, the cedi has given back part of last year's gains and reserves have slipped from their year-end level. The Monetary Policy Committee meets from Nov. 16 to 18, and the November consumer price figures are due in early December.