ADNOC Gas said on Tuesday that its third-quarter net income doubled from the previous quarter to $1.34 billion, as export cargoes recovered despite continued disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and it raised its full-year 2026 profit guidance to at least $4 billion.

Profit rose 101% from $665 million in the second quarter, the Abu Dhabi-listed company said in its results release. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) climbed 70% quarter on quarter to $2.03 billion. Against the same period of 2025, net income was roughly flat, according to Rigzone, as higher prices made up for lower sales volumes.

The numbers matter to Asian buyers. Chief Executive Fatema Al Nuaimi said on Tuesday's earnings call that demand from customers in Asia, including India and China, has increased, according to AGBI. Their plan to study export routes that avoid Hormuz is the clearest sign yet that Gulf producers are redrawing logistics around the risk of further closures.

ADNOC Gas exports rebound from a weak second quarter

The quarter-on-quarter recovery came largely from overseas sales. Export and traded liquids volumes rose 69% from the second quarter to 198 trillion British thermal units (TBtu), but were still 28% below the 273 TBtu shipped a year earlier, Rigzone reported, citing company filings. The company's share of output from the ADNOC LNG joint venture on Das Island almost doubled from the prior quarter to 37 TBtu, from 19 TBtu.

ADNOC Gas said EBITDA from international product sales rose 106% from the second quarter. Domestic sales, which supply around 60% of the UAE's gas needs, rose 20% on the quarter on seasonal demand, lifting domestic gas EBITDA by 28%. Sulfur was the standout: EBITDA from that business jumped 249%.

Prices helped. Brent crude averaged $96 a barrel in the third quarter, 40% above the $69 average a year earlier, and the JKM benchmark for Asian LNG was 52% higher year on year, according to figures cited by Rigzone from the company's filings. The company said the year-on-year decline in EBITDA reflected lower high-margin export volumes while the Hormuz disruption lasted through the quarter.

The new guidance sits at the top of the company's earlier range. AGBI noted that even $4 billion would leave 2026 profit more than 20% below 2025 levels. ADNOC Gas said the outlook still depends on maritime conditions in the region.

Shareholders will get a quarterly dividend of $940 million, up 5% from a year earlier and payable in December, in line with the company's target of 5% annual increases through 2030. Operating cash flow of $3.82 billion in the first nine months covered year-to-date dividends of $2.82 billion about 1.3 times. The company said its full-year payout of 18 fils a share equals a 5.34% yield at Monday's closing price. Its shares are down almost 5% this year, AGBI reported, though they have recovered from a slump in October.

Fujairah study and the Hormuz problem

Al Nuaimi said on the call that the company had spent recent months studying ways to reach customers through alternative routes, AGBI reported. No final decision has been made.

Chief Financial Officer Peter van Driel said feasibility work on an LNG project in Fujairah, on the UAE's east coast outside the strait, would settle questions of size, gas volumes and target markets, and that the company would report back once it decides. Fujairah has served as an outlet for UAE oil exports during the U.S.-Iran war, according to AGBI.

The question is pressing because the company's biggest growth project sits inside the Gulf. Ruwais LNG, under construction in Abu Dhabi, is designed to process nearly 10 million tonnes a year and more than double ADNOC Gas's existing LNG capacity, according to AGBI. Its cargoes would still have to pass through Hormuz. AGBI put first exports at early 2028 or early 2029; the company said the first two main refrigeration compressor trains were installed during the quarter.

The risk is not theoretical. The company's main processing hub at Habshan was damaged in attacks during the war, and ADNOC Gas said restoration work is on track to return the complex to full capacity by the second quarter of 2027.

Spending plans unchanged

ADNOC Gas plans about $28 billion of investment between 2026 and 2030 across four megaprojects: Rich Gas Development, Ruwais LNG, Maximizing Ethane Recovery and Monetization (MERAM) and Estidama. It is targeting 60% EBITDA growth by 2030 compared with 2023. During the quarter it broke ground on the third phase of Rich Gas Development, which adds a fractionation train at Ruwais to produce more than 8 million tonnes a year of natural gas liquids for export, and started first gas into MERAM.

The company has also been signing supply deals with outside buyers, including a five-year agreement for TotalEnergies to take up to 1.6 million tonnes of LNG, AGBI noted. The December dividend payment and any decision on the Fujairah study are the next markers for investors.