Chile's copper exports fell 5.4% from a year earlier to $5.41 billion in October, Banco Central de Chile data showed, as shrinking mine output in the world's biggest producer of the metal outweighed high prices.

The decline matters for Asian smelters and fabricators, which buy the bulk of Chile's copper ore and concentrates. Lower shipments from Chile mean less of the raw material that Chinese, Japanese and South Korean smelters process.

October copper sales compared with $5.72 billion in the same month of 2025 and $5.97 billion in September 2026, according to the central bank's statistical bulletin dated Nov. 7. Total mining exports, which include lithium and other minerals, slipped 3.2% to $6.36 billion. Mining exports other than copper rose to $950 million from $851 million a year earlier, the tables show.

China takes most of Chile's concentrate

Chile shipped 1.35 million metric tons of copper ore and concentrates in October, of which 818,899 tons went to China, according to Chilean customs data compiled by Shanghai Metals Market. That is about 61% of the total. Exports of copper metal reached 180,665 tons, with 13,652 tons sent to China.

The pattern reflects how China buys Chilean copper. Its smelters take concentrate and refine it at home, while Chile's refined cathodes go to a wider set of buyers. A slowdown at Chilean mines therefore reaches Chinese smelters first.

The volume figures also show how lopsided the trade is. China took less than 8% of Chile's copper metal shipments in October by tonnage but most of its concentrate, so Chinese demand for Chilean copper runs mainly through the smelting industry rather than through cathode imports. Peru, the other big Andean supplier, has seen the same pull: Southern Copper's sales to China jumped in its latest quarter.

The weaker October figure follows a slump in production. Chile's state copper commission, Cochilco, cut its 2026 output forecast to an 8.4% decline late last month after output fell 15.1% in September. Prices have cushioned the blow: the central bank's copper export price index stood at 217.5 in the second quarter, against 166.3 a year earlier.

Mining news site Minería en Línea, which reported the 5.4% drop on Nov. 9, linked weaker concentrate orders partly to soft readings in China's manufacturing surveys.

Surplus widens as imports drop

Chile's trade surplus rose to $2.55 billion in October from $2.05 billion in September, based on the central bank's export and import tables. Total exports rose 1.2% from a year earlier to $10.29 billion, while imports measured on a free-on-board basis fell 5.3% to $7.74 billion. A year earlier the October surplus was about $2.0 billion. On a cost, insurance and freight basis, which includes shipping costs, imports totaled $8.39 billion against $8.77 billion in October 2025.

Capital-goods imports fell hardest. They dropped 29.3% to $1.58 billion. Consumer-goods imports edged up to $2.41 billion from $2.27 billion. Fuel imports also rose: petroleum purchases rose to $548 million from $367 million a year earlier.

Outside mining, the picture was stronger. Industrial exports rose 14% to $3.5 billion, led by food, which climbed to $1.40 billion from $1.18 billion. Farm products lagged: fruit exports fell 21.5% to $372 million. Among individual products, salmon and trout exports rose 13.8% to $686 million, and bleached pulp sales dropped to $157 million from $203 million.

Strong year so far

The monthly dip leaves Chile well ahead for the year. Copper exports totaled $54.66 billion from January to October, up 15.8% from $47.22 billion in the same period of 2025, according to the central bank's monthly figures. Total goods exports rose 16.6% to $104.12 billion over the same 10 months.

The question for buyers in Asia is whether volume losses widen into the year-end months. Last December, Chile exported $6.67 billion of copper, its strongest month of 2025, which sets a high bar for comparison. Even a flat year-on-year result would require shipments well above October's $5.41 billion.

Copper still made up more than half of Chile's goods exports in October, at 53% of the total, down from 56% a year earlier. The next marker is October mine output from the National Statistics Institute, which will show whether September's 15.1% production drop has eased.