S&P Global Ratings affirmed Thailand's BBB+ long-term sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook on Nov. 4, pointing to the country's large foreign reserves and its position as a net external creditor, even as it forecast growth of only 2.3% this year and a steady rise in government debt.

For bond investors in Asia, the decision removes a near-term risk for Thai government debt, but it does not change the underlying picture. S&P sees Thailand's net general government debt climbing from roughly 40% of GDP at the end of 2025 to 47% by 2029, according to details of the assessment reported by The Nation. That is a slow drift rather than a shock, and the agency judged the country's external buffers strong enough to absorb it.

S&P weighs Thailand's reserves against slower growth

The agency expects Thai real GDP growth of 2.3% in 2026, slightly below 2.4% in 2025, with external risks and structural constraints weighing on activity and government fiscal measures expected to cushion part of the drag. Over 2026 to 2029, it projects growth averaging 2.4% a year.

On the fiscal side, S&P expects the government's net debt to grow by an amount equal to 4.2% of GDP in 2026 and by an average of 3.5% a year over the four years through 2029. It assumes Bangkok will keep using the budget to support growth while maintaining discipline.

The external accounts are the main support. S&P expects Thailand's current account to be roughly balanced in 2026 and to return to surpluses of about 2.1% to 2.4% of GDP from 2027, as exports grow in line with imports of intermediate goods and energy prices gradually normalize. It also expects GDP per capita to rise from about $8,000 in 2024 to $9,100 in 2026, helped in part by a stronger baht.

The rating agency listed the conditions that could support an upgrade over time: growth compared with countries at similar income levels, GDP per capita, the direction of fiscal policy and domestic political stability. It said greater government stability would help continuity in long-term economic policy.

S&P also flagged investment priorities it expects the government to keep, including the Eastern Economic Corridor and transport infrastructure, with state enterprises and public-private partnerships carrying part of the spending. It cited tax incentives for data center investment and support for Thai companies joining global artificial intelligence supply chains. Those incentives line up with recent central bank data showing that private investment rose sharply in September on AI data center equipment.

Finance minister Ekniti points to stable outlooks

Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said on Nov. 5 that the stable outlooks from Fitch Ratings, Moody's and S&P showed confidence in the government's economic policies. He said the government would keep promoting investment in new industries and "prioritising fiscal discipline," according to The Nation.

The affirmation leaves Thailand's rating unchanged at a level two notches above the lowest investment grade. Any move in either direction now depends largely on whether growth can pick up from the low 2% range that S&P expects to persist through the end of the decade.

Fuel price cuts and the China trade gap

Other figures released this week show where the pressure points lie. Thailand's Oil Fuel Fund Committee agreed on Nov. 5 to cut retail B7 diesel by 0.75 baht a litre and petrol and gasohol by 1 baht a litre from Nov. 6, taking B7 diesel to 41.79 baht and petrol to 49.33 baht. B20 diesel prices were left unchanged.

The committee attributed the drop in global prices partly to easing tensions in the Middle East and higher crude exports from the Persian Gulf. International diesel closed at about $155 a barrel on Nov. 5, down from about $166 a day earlier, while petrol fell to about $105 from about $112, the committee said. It said the cuts would also reduce subsidy spending that had reached 69 million baht a day, easing strain on the fund's finances. Lower pump prices should ease living costs for households and transport operators.

Trade with China is a separate strain on the external accounts that S&P relies on. Thailand's trade deficit with China widened 53% from a year earlier to 2.43 trillion baht in the first nine months of 2026, The Nation reported, as imports from China rose 39% to $108.5 billion. Over the same period Thailand ran a 1.67 trillion baht surplus with the U.S., up 38%. Rangsit University economist Aat Pisanwanich told Thansettakij the full-year deficit with China could exceed 2.5 trillion baht, the highest in 12 years.

The next test for S&P's 2.3% forecast will be Thailand's official third-quarter GDP figures.