Indonesia's trade minister said on Friday that the country can still hit its target of 5.5% to 6.5% export growth this year, even as the government cut the November reference price for crude palm oil, its signature commodity export, by 6.07% to $978.90 a metric ton.

The two announcements, made in Jakarta on Oct. 30, frame the question for investors in the rupiah and Indonesian assets. Bank Indonesia is working to stabilize the rupiah amid external pressure, MSCI's proposal to reclassify the Jakarta market set off the worst stock rout since 1998, and export earnings are a steady source of dollars. Lower reference prices for palm oil and cocoa mean each ton shipped in November will be valued for duty purposes at less than in October.

Trade Minister Budi Santoso Bets on Manufacturing

Speaking in Jakarta, Trade Minister Budi Santoso said exports rose 4.7% in the first eight months of 2026, according to Antara, the state news agency. He acknowledged that the trade balance slipped into deficit in May and June, which he tied to the knock-on effects of the oil price spike in March, but said the ministry was confident of reaching its year-end goal.

Data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) show exports totaled $193.64 billion from January to August, up 4.74% from a year earlier. Manufactured goods supplied $159.55 billion of that, about 82.4% of the total, and grew 7.87%, the Trade Ministry said earlier in October.

August alone was stronger. Exports reached $26.61 billion that month, up 6.72% on the year, and the country posted a monthly trade surplus of $3.55 billion, led by iron and steel, palm oil derivatives and coal, the ministry said. China, the United States and India were the top destinations for non-oil shipments.

For the eight months, the surplus stood at $7.25 billion, according to BPS figures cited by Antara. That number hides a wide split: non-oil and gas trade produced a $28.54 billion surplus, while oil and gas ran a $21.29 billion deficit. That leaves the overall balance exposed to the oil import bill.

Budi said the ministry is using its 46 trade offices in 33 countries, including trade attachés and Indonesian Trade Promotion Centers, to find buyers. He described the staff as “sales agents for our exporters,” Antara reported. The Trade Expo Indonesia in mid-October generated potential transactions of $22.94 billion, according to the minister, though such figures are potential deals rather than booked exports.

Palm Oil and Cocoa Reference Prices Fall for November

The Ministry of Trade's November price decree, published the same evening, points to weaker earnings per ton for two important commodities.

The crude palm oil reference price for Nov. 1 to 30 fell $63.25 from October's $1,042.15 a ton, the ministry said in a statement. The reference price sets both the export duty and the export levy that funds the plantation fund agency. At the new level, exporters pay a duty of $124 a ton and a levy of 12.5% of the reference price, or $122.36 a ton, said Tommy Andana, the ministry's director general of foreign trade.

The ministry calculated the price from average quotes between Sept. 20 and Oct. 19. Prices on the Indonesian palm oil exchange averaged $869.07 a ton, against $1,088.73 on the Malaysian exchange and $1,443.90 at the port of Rotterdam. Because the gap among the three exceeded $40, the rules required the ministry to use the two prices closest to the median, which were the Malaysian and Indonesian quotes.

Cocoa fell further. The November reference price for cocoa beans dropped 7.33% to $5,613.60 a ton, and the export benchmark price fell 7.81% to $5,242. Tommy attributed the decline to rising bean stocks as the harvest got under way in West Africa, the main producing region.

Bank Indonesia and Inflation Set the Backdrop

The export push comes as Bank Indonesia leans on the currency. On Oct. 21 the central bank held its benchmark BI rate at 5.75% but raised its deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 5%, and it increased incentives for hedging through domestic non-deliverable forwards to draw in foreign capital, Governor Destry Damayanti said. The bank projects 2026 economic growth of 4.9% to 5.7% and said non-oil exports had improved but needed more support to benefit from higher commodity prices.

Price pressure at home is moderate. Annual inflation was 3.28% in September, up from 3.19% in August, while core inflation eased to 2.84%, according to BPS data reported by Antara and Bank Indonesia. Both sit within Bank Indonesia's target band of 2.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

Food costs are the swing factor. The National Food Agency said on Sunday that annual rice inflation fell to 3.73% in September, the lowest for that month in four years, helped by 4.5 million metric tons of government rice reserves and the release of 2.88 million tons through state logistics agency Bulog this year.