Indonesia still has to raise more than Rp600 trillion ($33 billion) in state revenue and spend roughly Rp990 trillion in the last two months of 2026, Finance Minister Suahasil Nazara said on Tuesday, after briefing President Prabowo Subianto on budget results through October.

Those two numbers frame the fiscal question bond investors in Singapore and Hong Kong are asking as Indonesian yields sit near multiyear highs. By a Capital Times calculation from the minister's figures, spending in November and December would outrun revenue by close to Rp390 trillion, in a quarter when foreign money has been leaving Jakarta's stock market.

Speaking to reporters at the presidential palace complex, Suahasil said Prabowo had told ministries and agencies to keep spending efficient through year-end so that revenue and expenditure projections stay on plan, according to the state news agency ANTARA. He accepted that government outlays usually accelerate in the closing weeks of the fiscal year and said the ministry would allow that pattern, as long as each item met the output targets set when the budget was drafted.

"That is fine, but it must remain efficient and adhere to good governance," he said. He did not say which revenue lines, including taxes, the government would lean on to close the shortfall, and he did not release the October deficit figure itself.

Where Indonesia's budget stood before October

The last full public numbers, released Oct. 9, covered the nine months to September. The deficit was Rp319 trillion, or 1.24% of GDP, according to Fortune Indonesia's account of the ministry's monthly APBN KiTa briefing. The full-year target is Rp689.1 trillion, or 2.68% of GDP, and officials at the briefing put the year-end outcome at about 2.8% of GDP, still under the 3% legal ceiling.

Revenue through September was Rp2,341.5 trillion, or 74.2% of the Rp3,153.6 trillion full-year target, up 25.5% from a year earlier. Tax revenue accounted for Rp1,847.7 trillion and non-tax revenue for Rp492.3 trillion. Spending had reached Rp2,660.5 trillion, or 69.2% of the Rp3,842.7 trillion budget, up 19%. The primary balance, which excludes interest payments, showed a surplus of Rp125.5 trillion, against a budgeted primary deficit of Rp89.7 trillion.

The figures help explain the scale of the year-end push. With almost a third of the spending budget unused at the end of September, the bulk of the remaining outlays falls into the final quarter, the usual pattern for Indonesian ministries.

Suahasil, who had been deputy finance minister since 2019, was sworn in on Sept. 14, succeeding Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa. On the day he took office he said the deficit "will remain below 3 percent," ANTARA reported.

Oil prices and the bond market

The minister also pointed to energy prices. He said global crude had climbed as high as $113 a barrel before easing in recent days, which meant the budget needed to stay ready to respond.

At a separate press conference of the Financial System Stability Committee (KSSK) on Tuesday, Suahasil said foreign investors bought a net Rp28.79 trillion of government bonds in the third quarter, lifting nonresident holdings 3.28% from the end of 2025. The spread between Indonesia's 10-year benchmark and the 10-year U.S. Treasury was 183 basis points in the third quarter, little changed from 184 at the end of last year, he said.

The committee said pressure on domestic markets had increased since early October, with pressure on the rupiah and the stock market accompanied by rising capital outflows from equities. Capital Times reported last week that the 10-year bond yield hit 7.71%, a six-year high, as the rupiah tested 18,200 per dollar.

No VAT on bank transfers, Suahasil says

Suahasil also used the KSSK briefing to rule out a new tax on money transfers. Public debate had built after Hashim Djojohadikusumo, chair of the advisory board of the Indonesian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Kadin), suggested a value-added tax measure could take effect on Nov. 9.

The minister said there is no new policy that automatically imposes VAT on every transfer between banks or digital wallets. The measure under discussion is a 2026 Finance Ministry regulation creating a system to collect VAT on foreign digital transactions, known by its Indonesian initials SPP-TDLN, which the ministry launched on Sept. 25 with five banks and one financial technology company designated as collectors. VAT applies only to the administrative fees transfer providers charge, not to the amount sent, under a regulation in place since 2022, he said.

The tax directorate made the same point a day earlier. Inge Diana Rismawanti, its director of counseling, services and public relations, said on Monday that the system is not a new tax, does not change the VAT rate and does not apply to personal fund transfers or remittances. Where an appointed foreign digital merchant has already collected VAT, the transaction will not be taxed again, she said.

The ministry's next scheduled APBN KiTa briefing will give the October deficit, the first official reading of how much of the remaining Rp990 trillion has started to flow.