BASF raised its full-year earnings forecast after third-quarter sales rose 14% to 16.4 billion euros, as the German chemical maker charged customers more across most of its businesses. The company now expects 2026 EBITDA before special items of 7.4 billion to 7.8 billion euros, up from a range of 6.9 billion to 7.7 billion euros, it said on Oct. 28.

For investors in Asia, the result matters on two fronts. BASF is one of the largest foreign chemical producers in China, where it has just finished an 8.7 billion euro production complex, and its pricing is a read on how much room European producers have against low-cost Asian competition. Indian Chemical News, in its report on the results, said BASF appeared insulated from rising export competition from China and other Asian markets in the quarter.

BASF beats estimates on prices

EBITDA before special items rose 15% to 1.6 billion euros from 1.4 billion euros a year earlier, with the margin steady at 10.0%, according to the company's quarterly statement. Indian Chemical News put the analyst consensus for that measure at 1.50 billion euros and expected sales of 15.67 billion euros, meaning BASF beat on both lines.

Price did most of the work. Higher prices added 12% to sales and volumes added 2%, the German-language version of the release showed. Prices rose considerably in Chemicals, Materials, Surface Technologies and Industrial Solutions. Volumes rose substantially in Chemicals and in Nutrition & Care.

Agricultural Solutions was the weak spot. Prices there were slightly lower and volumes fell significantly, and Indian Chemical News reported that segment sales dropped 20% from a year earlier. Earnings also declined at Surface Technologies, the coatings and battery materials unit.

Chief Executive Markus Kamieth said the strong year-to-date performance of the core businesses gave the company "confidence to narrow our forecast range for EBITDA before special items upward," according to the release. Chief Financial Officer Dirk Elvermann presented the numbers with him.

Restructuring and an impairment push EBIT below zero

Beneath the operating gains, the bottom line was thinner. Special items totaled minus 437 million euros, mainly restructuring costs at BASF's home site in Ludwigshafen and a legal settlement in Care Chemicals. Depreciation and amortization reached 1.3 billion euros, including a 318 million euro impairment in the Monomers division.

As a result, EBIT came in at minus 98 million euros, compared with a profit of 232 million euros a year earlier. Net income slipped to 155 million euros from 172 million euros, or 0.18 euro a share. Adjusted earnings per share rose to 0.72 euro from 0.52 euro.

Cash generation held up. Operating cash flow fell 275 million euros to 1.1 billion euros because higher raw material costs tied up 507 million euros in inventories. Free cash flow still rose 125 million euros to 523 million euros, helped by lower capital spending and 434 million euros from the sale of shares in Harbour Energy.

Zhanjiang spending winds down

A large part of that lower spending came from China. Payments for property, plant and intangible assets fell by 401 million euros, mainly because of lower payments for the Verbund site in Zhanjiang, in southern Guangdong province, BASF said.

The company formally inaugurated the Zhanjiang complex on March 26. It cost about 8.7 billion euros, was completed on schedule and well below its original budget, and is built around a steam cracker with capacity of 1 million metric tons of ethylene a year, according to BASF. CHEManager reported that BASF has started 18 plants and 32 production lines at the site, which employs more than 2,000 people and is the company's third-largest Verbund site after Ludwigshafen and Antwerp. BASF's sales in Greater China were about 8.2 billion euros in 2025.

With construction finished, the spending burden shifts to the question of returns. Chinese demand has been mixed: industrial profits rose 14.4% in September on electronics, while private factories have been cutting export prices to win orders, a sign of the price pressure BASF's Asian rivals face. BASF said currency effects were positive in all segments in the third quarter, mainly from the U.S. dollar and the Chinese yuan.

The new guidance assumes global economic growth of 2.5%, chemical production growth of 1.8%, Brent crude at an average of $80 a barrel and an exchange rate of $1.17 per euro. BASF kept its free cash flow forecast at 1.5 billion to 2.3 billion euros and its carbon dioxide emissions target at 17.2 million to 18.2 million metric tons.

The raised range still spans 400 million euros. Its new floor of 7.4 billion euros sits 500 million euros above the old one, while the top end moved up by only 100 million euros.