Singapore's public housing resale prices fell for a third straight quarter, slipping 0.1% in the July-to-September period, even as the number of flats changing hands rose 19.5% to the highest level since 2024. The Housing & Development Board published the final figures on Oct. 22.

The data matter beyond Singapore's heartland estates. Resale flat values feed into household wealth, into upgrading demand for private condominiums and into the sales outlook for listed developers. A market where volumes climb but prices stand still suggests the government's effort to cool public housing has taken hold without causing a slump.

The final reading was slightly better than HDB's flash estimate on Oct. 1, which had pointed to a 0.2% fall on 7,528 transactions, EdgeProp Singapore reported at the time. Prices fell 0.1% in the first quarter, the first drop in close to seven years, and 0.3% in the second.

Wait-Out Rule Ends, Bigger Flats Sell

Resale transactions rose to 7,645 from 6,396 in the second quarter, and were 5.9% higher than the 7,221 recorded a year earlier.

The quarter included the first two months after the government removed, on July 28, a 15-month wait-out period that private-property owners and former owners had to serve before buying a non-subsidized resale flat. The rule dated from September 2022, when resale prices were rising quickly. The government said it lifted the rule because market conditions had improved and resale prices had moderated significantly.

HDB said it had not seen a significant increase in either the prices paid or the number of flats bought by current and former private homeowners since the change.

The pickup was concentrated in larger units. Sales of five-room flats rose 26.7% from the prior quarter to 1,867, and sales of executive and multi-generation flats rose 41.6% to 545, EdgeProp Singapore reported, citing HDB data. Lee Sze Teck, senior director of data analytics at Huttons Asia, said in comments carried by the outlet that the quarter was shaped by policy shifts, seasonal trends and the absence of a Build-To-Order launch. He expects the resale market may bottom in the fourth quarter.

The top end kept growing. Some 596 flats sold for S$1 million or more, up from 490 in the second quarter and the first time the quarterly count topped 500, according to EdgeProp Singapore. About half of those deals involved flats 15 years old or younger, which Eugene Lim, key executive officer at ERA Singapore, attributed to their condition and longer remaining leases.

Prices did not move together across the island. Nine of 26 towns recorded declines, with the central area down 8.4%, Ang Mo Kio down 4.7% and Jurong East down 4.3%, the outlet reported.

New Supply Arrives

Supply of new flats is the next test. In its November Build-To-Order exercise, HDB will offer about 7,960 flats in Bedok, Geylang, Sembawang, Tengah, Toa Payoh and Yishun, along with Community Care Apartments for seniors in Toa Payoh. Huttons' Lee pointed to the launch as one reason the resale market may bottom out in the fourth quarter. The government also raised the income ceiling for Build-To-Order flats from August, to S$16,000 a month for couples and families and S$8,000 for singles, EdgeProp Singapore reported.

Christine Sun, chief researcher and strategist at Realion Group, has said the higher ceiling could divert demand from larger, pricier resale flats. Realion now forecasts HDB resale prices will rise 0% to 2% for 2026, according to EdgeProp Singapore. Mohan Sandrasegeran, head of research and data analytics at SRI, said the moderation did not point to a broad loss of buyer interest and expects 26,000 to 27,000 resale deals this year, with full-year prices between a 1% fall and a 1% gain.

Government Keeps a Cautious Tone

HDB and the Urban Redevelopment Authority used identical language in their third-quarter releases, warning that the macroeconomic outlook "remains highly uncertain, including for global and domestic interest rates." Both advised households to be prudent with property purchases and mortgage loans, and HDB said the government would adjust policies as necessary.

On the private side, URA said 4,745 units will be launched under the Government Land Sales Confirmed List in the second half of 2026, bringing the year's total to 9,320. It expects about 57,200 private homes, including executive condominiums, to be completed in the coming years, about 22,300 of them by 2028.

The November Build-To-Order exercise is the next marker. After that comes HDB's flash estimate of fourth-quarter resale prices.