New-home prices in China's four first-tier cities rose 0.1% in September from August, matching the gain a month earlier, the National Bureau of Statistics said, but prices still fell in 49 of the 70 cities it tracks as weakness persisted outside the biggest markets.

For investors in Hong Kong, where many mainland developers and lenders are listed, the data offer the first official read on prices since Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Chengdu eased demand-side rules in late August, according to China Index Academy. They show a market splitting in two: Shanghai and the southern hubs are firming, while Beijing and most smaller cities are still sliding.

Shanghai leads, Beijing lags

Shanghai stood out. New-home prices there rose 0.2% on the month and were 2.8% higher than a year earlier, according to the bureau's tables, and second-hand prices climbed 0.5% in September, the fastest monthly gain among the four first-tier cities. Shanghai was the only city of the 70 where second-hand prices were higher than a year earlier, up 0.8%.

Larger homes drove much of Shanghai's gain. New flats of more than 144 square meters were 5.6% dearer than a year before, compared with 1.5% for units of 90 square meters or less, the bureau's size breakdown showed.

Guangzhou new-home prices rose 0.2% on the month and Shenzhen's 0.3%. Both remained lower than a year earlier, by 1.1% and 1.0%, respectively.

Beijing moved the other way. New-home prices in the capital fell 0.2% from August and were down 2.7% from September 2025, a deeper annual drop than the 2.3% recorded in August, according to Trading Economics calculations based on the bureau's data. Second-hand prices in Beijing edged up 0.1% on the month but were 2.5% lower than a year earlier.

Yang Caifang, senior statistician at the bureau's urban survey department, said in a commentary published with the data that first-tier second-hand prices rose 0.2% on the month, 0.1 percentage point faster than in August. Year on year, first-tier new-home prices were down 0.5% and second-hand prices down 1.5%, with the latter decline narrowing by 1.2 points.

Smaller cities still falling

The picture outside the top tier was weaker. In the 31 second-tier cities, new-home prices were flat on the month after a 0.1% fall in August, while second-hand prices dropped 0.2%. In the 35 third-tier cities, new-home prices fell 0.2% and second-hand prices 0.3%, the same pace as a month earlier, Yang said.

Annual declines narrowed in every tier, but remain deep further down the ladder. Second-tier new-home prices were 2.4% lower than a year earlier and third-tier prices 3.9% lower. For second-hand homes, the drops were 4.5% and 5.4%.

Seventeen cities recorded month-on-month increases in new-home prices, two more than in August, and nine saw second-hand prices rise, up from three. Chengdu, one of the cities that relaxed rules in August, still posted a 0.3% monthly fall in new-home prices and a 4.8% decline from a year earlier. Hangzhou, another, showed a 0.1% monthly gain and a 1.8% annual rise.

The bureau does not publish a national average. A simple average of the 70 city indices in the bureau's table, calculated by Capital Times, shows new-home prices down about 0.1% on the month and 3.0% on the year, extending a run of annual declines that Trading Economics counted at 38 months through August.

Subsidy and supply rules shape the fourth quarter

September's survey largely predates the government's newest support. On Sept. 29, the Ministry of Finance and two other agencies announced a 1-percentage-point interest subsidy on qualifying household mortgages from Oct. 1, China News Service reported. The subsidy and a wave of developer promotions helped lift October sales for China's top 100 developers, though volumes remained below a year earlier.

Private data point to the same gap between new and older homes. China Index Academy's survey of 100 cities put the average September new-home price at 17,285 yuan per square meter, up 2.12% from a year earlier, as developers launched better-located projects in core cities. Second-hand prices averaged 12,452 yuan, down 6.94%, China News Service reported.

Cao Jingjing, general manager of the academy's index research department, expects the market to keep bottoming out in the fourth quarter, with core-city easing and new projects supporting new-home sales. She said a high stock of listings is likely to keep pressure on second-hand prices in the short term.

Rules issued Aug. 28 that push developers toward selling completed homes instead of presales add another variable. Cao said their effect on land purchases and new supply will deepen from 2027.

The bureau is due to publish October's 70-city price data in mid-November, giving the first official measure of whether the mortgage subsidy is reaching prices as well as sales.