Vietnamese rice export prices climbed to their highest level in nearly two years last week, with 5% broken rice offered at $470 to $480 a ton on Oct. 29, up from $440 to $450 a week earlier, according to Reuters. Traders said domestic stocks were running thin ahead of a smaller harvest, while Indian prices held near their highest level in more than a year and Thai quotes stayed firm.

For importers across Asia, the move cuts against a year in which cheap Indian grain had kept a lid on costs. The Philippines and Bangladesh are among the region's regular buyers, and higher rice bills arrive as energy costs are already pushing up food and transport prices. Several of the region's central banks have swung toward tighter policy this year on those same pressures.

Vietnam's Supply Squeeze

The Vietnamese quote, about 6.7% higher at the midpoint in a single week, is the highest since January 2025, Reuters reported. A trader in Ho Chi Minh City told the agency that domestic supplies were thin. The autumn-winter harvest begins at the end of November, and output from that crop is forecast at only about half of the summer-autumn harvest, according to the report.

Buyers are also expected to return. The same trader said prices could rise further next month, when the Philippines is expected to resume purchases from Vietnam. Two weeks earlier, a Vietnamese agriculture ministry official told Reuters that export activity should stay busy through year-end and that the country would meet its target of 8 million tons of exports.

Traders also flagged weather risk further out. Reuters said market participants expect El Niño conditions to weigh on production from next year.

Thai and Indian Prices Hold Near Highs

Thailand's benchmark has been rising steadily. The Thai Rice Exporters Association's weekly free-on-board quotes put 5% white rice at $492 a ton on Oct. 28, up from $474 on Sept. 30, a gain of about 3.8% in four weeks. The grade peaked at $494 on Oct. 21. Cheaper Thai grades rose faster: the association's quote for A.1 Super white broken rice climbed to $431 from $389 over the same period, an increase of almost 11%.

Reuters, which surveys traders separately, put Thai 5% broken rice at $480 a ton on Oct. 29, unchanged from the prior week. A Bangkok trader told the agency that the exchange rate and firm domestic prices kept quotes high, and that demand was coming from the Philippines and other regular buyers. Flooding in some growing areas has added uncertainty while harvesting is underway. In mid-October the association warned that Thai exports could fall short of their 7 million ton target because of competition from India and Pakistan and weaker demand from major buyers, according to Reuters.

The baht has eased slightly, which helps exporters at the margin. The association's table, citing Bank of Thailand data, showed the average buying rate for telex transfers at 33.65 baht per dollar on Oct. 28, from 33.39 on Sept. 30. The Bank of Thailand has held its policy rate at 1% and raised its export forecast.

Indian prices, the cheapest of the three major origins, were steady. India's 5% broken parboiled rice was quoted at $387 to $392 a ton on Oct. 29, unchanged from the previous week and up from $384 to $389 in mid-October, according to Reuters. White rice of the same grade was quoted at $389 to $394. A Kolkata exporter said new-season paddy had begun arriving in northern states, with supplies from central and southern states expected to rise from November. African buyers have been choosing Indian grain over pricier Thai rice, a Bangkok trader told Reuters.

How Far Prices Have Come

The rally has built over months. In May, Bloomberg News reported that Thai 5% broken white rice had reached $446 a ton, citing the exporters association, and that the U.S. Department of Agriculture expected global rice production to decline in the 2026-27 season for the first time in 11 years. Rising fertilizer and fuel costs had raised concerns that some Southeast Asian farmers would skip planting, Bloomberg said. The association's latest Thai quote is about 10% above that May level.

In Bangladesh, domestic rice prices stayed high last week despite ample government stocks, Reuters reported, as higher oil prices lifted production and transport costs.

The next tests are near. Philippine purchases from Vietnam are expected to restart in November, Vietnam's autumn-winter harvest begins at the end of the month, and Indian supplies from central and southern states are expected to increase. The Thai Rice Exporters Association's weekly quotes, last at $492 for 5% white rice, will show whether the Thai rally extends.