Macau's casino revenue is on course for a sixth consecutive year-on-year decline in November, analysts said last week, after gross gaming revenue fell 10% in October to 21.68 billion patacas (about US$2.7 billion) as spending by wealthy gamblers dropped sharply. Brokerages forecast a November contraction of between 2% and 6.1%, according to Macau Business.

The forecasts matter for investors in Macau casino operators because the weakness sits in the most profitable part of the market. Visitors keep coming. High rollers are staying away or spending less, and the gap between footfall and revenue has become the central question for the sector heading into year-end.

October: Golden Week crowds, thinner VIP tables

The Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) reported on Nov. 1 that October revenue was the fifth straight month of annual decline, Macau Business reported. The total was still 20% higher than September, which had been the weakest month in two years.

The 10% drop matched the median analyst estimate, according to a Bloomberg report carried by The Star, which said soft spending by high-end players outweighed a jump in Golden Week visitors. October revenue was about 18% below the level of the same month in 2019, before the pandemic, the report said.

Seaport Research Partners estimated that VIP revenue fell by more than 35% in October, while mass-market revenue slipped by a low-single-digit percentage, Macau Business reported. "Softer demand is evident in higher-end play," the brokerage said in a note.

Seaport pointed to weakness in mainland China's economy and stock market, and to tax enforcement aimed at wealthy individuals with offshore assets. The reference is to Beijing's 20% tax on income from offshore trusts, introduced in July, under which taxpayers had to declare outstanding liabilities by October, according to Macau Business. Some high rollers may have postponed trips, Seaport said.

What brokerages expect for November

Seaport has the bleakest outlook. It expects November revenue to fall 6.1% and fourth-quarter revenue to drop 5.2%, and it forecasts full-year growth of only 0.9% for 2026, followed by 3% in 2027. The brokerage also said valuations for gaming companies with Macau exposure remain largely undemanding.

Citigroup cut its November estimate to 20.5 billion patacas from 21 billion patacas. That implies a 3% decline from a year earlier and average daily revenue of about 683 million patacas. Citi analysts said they were encouraged by late October: daily revenue averaged about 672 million patacas over the last six days of the month, roughly 11% above the 604 million patacas recorded from Oct. 12 to Oct. 25.

Citi expects demand to recover gradually as concerns about the offshore tax rules fade, and said entertainment and sporting events in Macau this month could support arrivals. It also warned that the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation leaders' meeting in Shenzhen on Nov. 18 and 19 could temporarily draw high-end gaming demand away from the city.

CLSA is the most optimistic. It projects November revenue of 20.8 billion patacas, down 2%, implying daily revenue of about 692 million patacas. That is better than the market consensus of a 4% decline, the brokerage said, according to Macau Business.

Target still within reach

The longer view is steadier. Revenue for the first 10 months of 2026 totaled 208.8 billion patacas, up 1.6% from a year earlier, according to government data cited by Macau Business. The monthly average so far, 20.88 billion patacas, is above the 19.66 billion patacas a month needed to reach the government's full-year forecast of 236 billion patacas.

Chief Executive Sam Hou Fai said the government would review October's results before deciding whether to keep that target, Focus Gaming News reported. CreditSights told the outlet that the city could still meet it and that the recent weakness may be cyclical rather than structural.

Tourism has held up better than the gaming tables. Visitor arrivals so far this year rose 8.5% from a year earlier to 32.18 million, putting Macau on track to pass 41 million for the full year and set a record, Macau Business reported. Across the border, Hong Kong has seen a similar pattern of strong mainland visitor growth this autumn.

For casino operators, the split shows where the pressure is coming from: Seaport's estimates put mass-market revenue roughly flat to slightly lower, while the VIP segment, more exposed to mainland wealth and tax policy, is driving the decline.

The DICJ released October revenue on the first day of November, and November figures are expected in early December. Daily run rates near the 683 million to 692 million patacas that Citi and CLSA have pencilled in would put the month at the milder end of forecasts; a figure closer to Seaport's 6.1% drop would mean a weaker fourth quarter, with the Shenzhen APEC meeting falling in the second half of the month.