Manulife Financial Corp.'s Asia business lifted core earnings 17% from a year earlier to $635 million in the third quarter, but the new business it wrote in mainland China shrank by more than half, showing a split running through Asia's life insurance industry: Hong Kong and Japan are growing, and the mainland is not.

The pattern repeated across results published in the first week of November by Manulife, Prudential plc, MetLife Inc. and FWD Group. For investors in Hong Kong, where Manulife, Prudential and FWD all have listings or large operations, the message is that growth now depends on local customers and bank branches in the city rather than on the mainland visitors who drove sales in recent years.

Manulife and Prudential: Hong Kong up, mainland China down

Manulife's new business contractual service margin (CSM), a measure of the future profit locked in by policies sold in the quarter, rose in Hong Kong to C$385 million from C$287 million a year earlier, according to Insurance Business Asia. Japan climbed to C$104 million from C$76 million. Mainland China fell to C$43 million from C$112 million, and Singapore slipped to C$155 million from C$182 million.

Across Asia, Manulife's annualized premium equivalent (APE) sales dipped 1% to $1.455 billion, and new business value was flat at $491 million, a 35.3% margin. Net income attributed to shareholders from Asia fell 23% to $510 million, the company said in its Nov. 4 release. Steve Finch, president and chief executive of Manulife Asia, called it a "robust performance" for the region. At group level, core earnings reached a record C$2.1 billion, up 4% at constant exchange rates.

Prudential told a similar story with a sharper warning. New business profit for the quarter rose just 1% to $709 million as sales fell 6% at constant exchange rates to $1.596 billion and the margin widened 3 percentage points to 44%, the company said. Stripping out China, new business profit grew 13% in the quarter. The London- and Hong Kong-listed insurer said mainland new business profit fell significantly and that it now expects the full-year figure there to be 10% to 15% below 2025.

That changes the arithmetic for the group target. Prudential still expects double-digit new business profit growth for 2026, but it said meeting that guidance had become "more stretching than anticipated" because of its Chinese operations. In Hong Kong, bancassurance lifted volumes and margins and domestic demand was strong, while slower conversion of mainland visitor customers held results back. Chief Executive Anil Wadhwani said bancassurance new business profit outside the mainland grew more than 20% in the quarter, and that the group saw strong momentum in September and October, though the improvement in its mainland life business had been slower than expected.

Prudential has bought back $1 billion of its shares in the first nine months and plans to reach $1.5 billion by year-end. Its Eastspring asset management arm reported funds under management or advice of $285.7 billion at Sept. 30, down from $290.8 billion at June 30, after $5.4 billion of net inflows were outweighed by market moves and the sale of a 2% stake in ICICI Prudential Asset Management.

AIA Group, the largest of the pan-Asian insurers, has already reported a fall in third-quarter new business value, and mainland insurers such as Ping An have seen investment income swing sharply with Chinese stocks.

MetLife and FWD: margins over volume

MetLife's Asia unit raised adjusted earnings 17% to $550 million, or 21% at constant currency, excluding notable items, Insurance Business Asia reported. Quarterly sales fell 6% at constant currency to $728 million against a strong year-earlier quarter, when regional sales grew 34%, though year-to-date sales were up 10%, led by Japan and Korea. General account assets under management in Asia stood at $145 billion at amortized cost.

FWD, the Hong Kong-listed insurer, reported nine-month figures rather than a single quarter. Its new business CSM rose 22% to $1.4 billion and value of new business rose 18% to $878 million, on APE sales of $1.95 billion, the company said in a Nov. 3 release. FWD attributed the double-digit growth to a shift in product mix, particularly in Hong Kong, where medium-term endowment policies made up a large share of 2025 sales.

What the split means for investors

The common thread is a move away from short-term savings products sold in volume toward policies that carry higher margins, often through banks. That lets the insurers report rising profit on flat or falling sales. It also leaves them more exposed to Hong Kong's domestic market and its bank partners, at a time when the mainland visitor channel has slowed and mainland operations are shrinking.

For Prudential, the next test is its full-year results, when it reports whether it hit double-digit growth across its four key 2026 metrics. Manulife's Asia new business CSM in mainland China, at C$43 million in the third quarter, gives a baseline for how far the slowdown has run.