AIA Group said its value of new business fell 5% in the third quarter to US$1.415 billion, as Mainland China dropped 33% against a year-earlier buying rush, though the Hong Kong-listed insurer said business rebounded in September.

The result matters well beyond one stock. AIA's sales to Mainland Chinese visitors are a closely watched gauge of cross-border money flowing into Hong Kong's financial products.

Value of new business, or VONB, estimates the lifetime profit from policies sold in a period and is the figure investors use to judge a life insurer's growth. AIA reports it at constant exchange rates. The third-quarter figure compared with about US$1.48 billion a year earlier, according to the company's results on Oct. 30 as reported by Reuters.

Annualized new premiums, a measure of sales volume, fell 13% to US$2.237 billion. The margin moved the other way: VONB as a share of premiums rose 5.3 percentage points to 63.5%, Dimsum Daily reported.

AIA China and Hong Kong Face a Record Base

The comparison was always going to be hard. In the third quarter of 2025, AIA reported record third-quarter VONB of US$1.48 billion, up 25%, with Hong Kong sales up 40% to a record quarterly high. Jefferies said in a note cited by Reuters that this year's drop had been "near-universally expected" given that base.

AIA China's 33% decline mainly reflected customers who bought ahead of an industry-wide repricing that took effect on Sept. 1, 2025, the company said. A double-digit decline in VONB from bank partners also weighed on the mainland, Reuters reported. AIA said the mainland returned to strong growth in September.

In Hong Kong, VONB slipped 3%, a decline AIA put down mainly to strong sales in July 2025. August and September combined were up 20% from a year earlier, and the company said "local customers continued to deliver very strong new business value growth."

The softer spot was Mainland Chinese visitors, some of whom took a wait-and-see approach amid extensive news coverage of offshore investments, AIA said. Reuters reported that Chinese authorities began earlier this year to tax returns on Hong Kong insurance policies held by mainland residents at 20%.

That matters for Hong Kong's wider financial sector, where banks have also leaned on wealth and insurance sales to mainland clients. Standard Chartered raised its 2026 outlook the same week on record wealth income.

Other Markets Pick Up the Slack

Outside its two biggest markets, AIA's business grew. VONB across the group's other reportable segments rose 18% in the quarter.

Lee Yuan Siong, AIA's group chief executive and president, said "momentum strengthened in September and into the fourth quarter." He reaffirmed that AIA expects to exceed its target of 9% to 11% compound annual growth in operating profit after tax (OPAT) per share from 2023 to 2026.

The Fourth Quarter

Group VONB rose more than 25% in September, which gives investors a starting point for the final three months of the year. The full-year test comes with AIA's 2026 annual results, when the company will report whether it cleared its 2023-to-2026 OPAT per share target.