India is on course to import more crude oil in October than in any month on record, between 5.4 million and 5.6 million barrels a day, according to estimates from trade intelligence firm Kpler reported by ThePrint on Oct. 31. Refiners stocked up for winter, when fuel demand peaks, and spread their purchases across more suppliers as shipping through the Gulf and the Black Sea stayed risky.

For Asian investors, the shift matters twice over. India buys roughly 88% of the crude it uses abroad, so every dollar on the barrel feeds into its trade deficit, the rupee and the profits of state fuel retailers. And the barrels India now takes from Angola, Venezuela and Brazil are barrels that Chinese, Korean and Japanese refiners would otherwise compete for.

Russia holds its share as Angola surges

Russia remained India's largest single supplier in October, at about 1.97 million barrels a day, according to the Kpler estimates. That was up about 100,000 barrels a day from September and equal to roughly 35% of India's imports. It was still well below July, when Russian crude reached 2.82 million barrels a day and more than half of India's purchases.

The route has changed. Loadings from Russia's Black Sea ports for India fell to about 190,000 barrels a day in October, ThePrint reported, from a summer average near 800,000, as security worries around the region grew. More of the flow now comes from northern ports such as Primorsk and Ust-Luga, where India takes about 90% of the cargoes.

The biggest jump came from Angola. Its shipments to India rose nearly tenfold, to 334,000 barrels a day from 36,000 in September. Venezuelan crude climbed to about 340,000 barrels a day from 196,000, with all of the extra volume going to Reliance Industries' Jamnagar refinery, according to the report.

Middle Eastern supply moved the other way. Total arrivals from the region fell to about 2.3 million barrels a day from about 2.7 million, as cargoes from the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq declined. Saudi Arabia, still the top Gulf supplier, lifted shipments from Ras Tanura to 625,000 barrels a day from 515,000.

Natalia Katona, a commodity analyst at Oilprice.com quoted by ThePrint, cautioned against reading the Saudi rise as a sign that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered. Many of those cargoes were loaded in early or mid-September and could have been held in floating storage, she said. Attacks on ships near the strait continue to raise the risk for any vessel in the Gulf, a pattern Capital Times has tracked as Hormuz flows remain far below prewar levels.

The diversification has been building all year. In April, Reuters reported in May citing Kpler data, India's imports held at 4.57 million barrels a day and Russia's share fell to about 35% from nearly 50% as Nayara Energy shut a refinery for maintenance, while OPEC's share rose to 45.2%. In February, before the war, about 40% of India's crude supply had transited Hormuz, The Tribune reported in March, when Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said imports were flowing through all other routes.

A bill driven by price, not volume

The record volumes arrive after six months in which India paid far more for roughly the same amount of oil. The crude import bill for April through September rose 46.3% from a year earlier to US$90.6 billion, from US$61.9 billion, according to data from the government's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell cited by ThePrint. Volumes over the period were nearly flat, at 122.7 million metric tons against 121.8 million.

Prices explain the gap. The Indian crude basket averaged US$116.09 a barrel in September, up from US$90.19 in August and US$69.61 a year earlier. September's import bill alone was US$15.4 billion, about 47% higher than in September 2025.

Domestic output has not helped. Crude and condensate production in the first half of the fiscal year slipped to 13.7 million metric tons from 14.2 million, and import dependence eased to 88.1% of consumption from 88.3%. Higher prices have also dented demand: consumption of petroleum products fell 3.3% to 114.8 million metric tons, with liquefied petroleum gas down 15.5% and naphtha down 18%. Diesel and petrol use still grew, by 4.9% and 7.1%.

Liquefied natural gas imports rose 4.4% in the half, while domestic gas output fell by the same percentage, lifting import dependence to 52.3% from 50.1%.

Russian barrels may thin out this winter

The Kpler outlook points to pressure on Russian supply in the last two months of the year. Nikhil Dubey, Kpler's lead analyst for oil markets and refineries, told ThePrint that higher freight costs are eroding the price advantage of Russian crude, while Middle Eastern producers are offering more competitive delivered prices and concessions.

Katona said Russian refinery runs could rise by 500,000 to 600,000 barrels a day from one month to the next as domestic plants recover, which could temporarily cut Russian shipments to India to 1.5 million to 1.6 million barrels a day. Winter conditions on the Northern Sea Route could push some cargoes back toward India, she added. Brazilian imports could reach a record in November.

Her summary of how Indian refiners now buy was blunt: “The best crude isn't necessarily the cheapest.” Indian refiners may increasingly put delivery reliability ahead of price, she said.

The next marker is the government's PPAC data for October, which will show what the record volumes cost. Brent averaged US$116.77 a barrel in September, according to the same PPAC figures, so the price Indian refiners locked in for October cargoes will shape that bill as much as the volume. Indian buyers will also watch OPEC+'s Nov. 29 meeting on 2027 quotas.