Memory chip contract prices kept rising in October, but by less, and one corner of the market stopped climbing altogether. NAND flash wafer contract prices held flat across MLC, TLC and QLC chips this month, ending their upward run, TrendForce said in its monthly price report on Oct. 30. Data center drives were the exception: enterprise SSD contract prices are still rising this quarter, the Taipei research firm said.

For investors in Seoul, Tokyo and Taipei, the October readings sharpen a split that already shows up in share prices. Suppliers selling into servers and AI data centers still set the terms. Those leaning on PCs, smartphones and the module trade face buyers who have stopped accepting every increase. Kioxia shares fell 15.78% to 11,345 yen on Monday while SK hynix rose 3.81% to 1,472,000 won, according to Aju Press.

DRAM: still rising, more slowly

TrendForce said fourth-quarter PC DRAM contract prices are still going up, though more slowly than in the third quarter. Buyers are resisting higher quotes, and the firm expects most deals to close in November at slightly higher levels. Notebook shipments are falling sharply, it said, and second-tier PC makers are expanding white-label models built with older processors and reworked DDR4 chips while cutting orders for next year.

Supply is the reason prices have not turned. TrendForce said suppliers plan negative growth in PC DRAM supply next year, with the Korean makers cutting deeply and moving output to servers, while "the US supplier" has secured volumes through long-term agreements. TrendForce did not name the company; Micron Technology is the only major U.S. DRAM maker, which is Capital Times' reading of the reference.

Server memory remains the strongest segment. Server DRAM contract prices climbed again in October, TrendForce said, as suppliers used product and customer mix to hold their bargaining power. Some Chinese cloud providers have cut purchases of high-capacity modules, so suppliers are redirecting that volume to server makers and other regions. Newer U.S. cloud buyers such as xAI that purchase complete servers are widening the customer base, it said.

Phones are flatter. TrendForce expects mobile DRAM contract prices to be flat to slightly higher this quarter, as smartphone brands, with inventory at or above target, turned cautious heading into year-end. Samsung Electronics, which raised prices early and holds the industry's highest unit prices, is likely to keep them flat to slightly up, the firm said, while SK hynix and China's CXMT raise prices to narrow the gap. Contract prices for consumer DRAM, used in TVs, routers and other devices, were flat to slightly up in October, and some legacy chips now trade below contract levels on the spot market, according to TrendForce. Our earlier report covered the firm's 10% to 15% fourth-quarter DRAM forecast.

NAND: a plateau, and a warning

The NAND readings are softer. TrendForce said module makers, unable to pass high wafer costs on to their own customers, have nearly stopped buying good dies and are purchasing only as needed. If consumer inventory is slow to clear, pressure on supplier inventory will build and the risk of contract price corrections will rise, the firm said.

In client SSDs, the drives that go into laptops, contract prices are still edging up this quarter but gains have narrowed sharply from the third quarter, TrendForce said in a separate Oct. 29 report. It described a standoff between buyers and sellers and expects increases to stall, with prices holding at elevated levels, in the first quarter, a seasonally weak period when new capacity also comes online. Its Oct. 28 NAND bulletin said wafer spot prices fell sharply as Chinese smartphone demand froze after price increases and brands cut prices in year-end promotions. Suppliers' own inventory is still at historically low levels, the bulletin said, which lets them keep pricing power for now.

Data center storage is moving the other way. North American customers keep raising order forecasts and broadly accepting increases, TrendForce said, while Chinese customers are pushing back. The firm flagged headwinds for next year: demand outside North America is weak, and China's YMTC is pushing aggressively for market share.

What it means for the chipmakers

Kioxia, the Japanese NAND maker, is the most exposed to the plateau. Its shares dropped on Monday after it forecast roughly flat revenue for the October-December quarter, as our markets report detailed.

SK hynix has more cover. It said on Oct. 28 that long-term agreements now cover more than half of its production capacity for 2027 and 2028, and its NAND growth came from 321-layer TLC enterprise SSDs, the segment where TrendForce still sees rising prices. Our earnings report has the full results.

Samsung, which shares the server DRAM tailwind, gained 1.78% to 229,000 won on Monday, Aju Press reported. The Associated Press said the Kospi had dropped more than 16% over the past month before Monday's rebound.

The next test comes in November, when TrendForce expects most fourth-quarter PC DRAM deals to settle. Its first-quarter contract outlook will show whether the flat NAND wafer reading turns into the correction it now warns of.