Ivanhoe Mines cut its 2027 copper production forecast for the Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo to 300,000 to 350,000 metric tons, from 380,000 to 420,000 tons, the second time this year it has lowered its target for the mine it owns jointly with China's Zijin Mining Group. The Toronto-listed company also raised its 2027 cash cost guidance to $2.50 to $3.00 a pound from $2.10 to $2.50, citing prolonged high diesel prices, lower grades and lower output, in third-quarter results released Tuesday.

At the midpoint, the new range is nearly a fifth below the old one. It is also more than a third below the 500,000 to 540,000 tons Ivanhoe had targeted for 2027 before it first lowered that range in late March, according to Engineering News.

For Asia, the issue is supply. Ivanhoe said the final destination port for Kamoa-Kakula's sales is predominantly in China, and Zijin, which is listed in Hong Kong and Shanghai, holds the same indirect 39.6% stake in the complex as Ivanhoe. The downgrade also follows a weaker outlook from the biggest producer: Chile's state copper agency cut its 2026 output forecast last week.

Investors reacted quickly. Ivanhoe shares fell as much as 14% in Toronto on Wednesday before recovering to close 4.8% lower at C$8.45, according to Yahoo Finance data. About 17.8 million shares changed hands, nearly four times Tuesday's volume.

Why Ivanhoe lowered Kamoa-Kakula's 2027 forecast

The company said the slower ramp-up next year mainly reflects a delay in the start of stoping, or production mining, on the eastern side of the Kakula mine, pushed from the fourth quarter of 2027 to late in the first quarter of 2028. It also cut its estimate of Kakula's maximum mining rate. The eastern side of Kakula flooded after seismic events in May 2025, and dewatering weighed on output for most of that year, Engineering News reported in April.

Ivanhoe reduced the steady-state capacity of its three existing concentrators to 400,000 to 450,000 tons of copper a year, because it will prioritize ore from new open pits while the turnaround at Kakula continues. Pre-stripping of two starter pits at Kamoa is due to begin in the first quarter of 2027, with first ore targeted for the third quarter.

Open pits let the company treat much lower-grade rock. Ivanhoe said the cutoff grade for pit ore could fall to as little as 0.4% copper, compared with the current 1.5% to 2.0%, and that the share of the orebody it can extract would rise to about 95% from roughly 65%. The trade-off is a lower head grade, which means more milling capacity is needed to keep the on-site smelter full.

That has changed the path to the company's long-standing goal. With the March cut, Ivanhoe said annualized output would exceed 500,000 tons from 2028. It now says reaching about 500,000 tons depends on a Phase 4 concentrator, which it expects to take 18 to 24 months to build from approval, with detailed engineering starting in the first quarter of 2027. Founder and co-chairman Robert Friedland said the revised guidance reflects "a disciplined approach to the ongoing turnaround at Kamoa-Kakula."

Capital spending will rise. Kamoa-Kakula's 2027 budget was raised to $950 million to $1.15 billion from $750 million to $950 million, partly because $200 million of spending was deferred from 2026. That figure excludes an estimated $100 million to $200 million to strip the open pits.

Record revenue at Kamoa-Kakula, less copper for Zijin

The quarter itself was stronger. Kamoa-Kakula produced 76,401 tons of copper in saleable products, up from 64,328 tons in the second quarter, as mining rates rose 20% and recoveries at the Phase 1 and 2 concentrators averaged 89%. The complex booked record revenue of $1.03 billion and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization of $478 million, a 46% margin, even though its realized copper price was a relatively low $6.12 a pound because most sales were priced earlier in the quarter.

By-products helped. Kamoa-Kakula sold 109,424 tons of sulfuric acid at an average of $915 a ton, and Ivanhoe said acid credits of 69 cents a pound more than covered smelter operating costs of 51 cents. The smelter, sized for 500,000 tons a year, is running at about 60% of capacity.

Ivanhoe reported a third-quarter profit of $45 million, up from $31 million a year earlier, and adjusted Ebitda of $241 million, against $86 million. It expects Kamoa-Kakula to produce about 290,000 tons in 2026, the bottom of its previous range.

For Zijin, the mine has already shrunk as a share of output. The Chinese group's attributable copper from Kamoa fell to 84,509 tons in the first nine months of 2026 from 140,614 tons a year earlier, a drop of about 40%, according to its third-quarter report published Oct. 23. That left Kamoa supplying about a tenth of Zijin's 815,721 tons of mined copper. Excluding Kamoa, Zijin's mined copper rose 6% to about 730,000 tons, and its nine-month net profit attributable to shareholders climbed 52% to 57.5 billion yuan.

Zijin's website puts its effective interest in Kamoa-Kakula at 44.2% once its shareholding in Ivanhoe is included, making it the largest equity holder in the complex.

The next marker is March 2027, when Ivanhoe plans to publish an updated life-of-mine plan for Kamoa-Kakula covering the open pits and the Phase 4 expansion. A 35-day smelter shutdown for safety and efficiency upgrades is also scheduled for the first half of 2027.