Vietnam's dong climbed to its strongest level against the U.S. dollar since April 2025 on Wednesday, a day after official figures showed the country posted a record $7.31 billion goods trade surplus in October and drew its largest 10-month foreign investment pledges since 2009.

Vietcombank sold dollars at 25,930 dong on Wednesday, down 0.12% from Tuesday and the lowest since mid-April 2025, VnExpress International reported. The U.S. currency has lost 1.7% against the dong this year. The State Bank of Vietnam trimmed its daily reference rate by 0.01% to 25,627 dong, and the dollar slipped 0.27% to about 26,080 dong on the unofficial market.

The gain matters for investors in Asia because it has come despite heavy foreign selling of Vietnamese shares. Vietnam had posted nine straight monthly trade deficits before returning to surplus in September, and foreign investors have sold a net $4.7 billion of stocks on the Ho Chi Minh City exchange this year, according to Tuoi Tre News. A firmer dong also trims the cost of imported fuel for an economy where inflation is running above target.

Record trade surplus and FDI pledges

Exports rose to $64.67 billion in October, up 8.7% from September and 51.4% from a year earlier, while imports fell 1.4% from September to $57.36 billion, the National Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance said in its monthly report on Tuesday. September's surplus had been $1.30 billion.

October's gap was the widest since monthly customs records began in 2009, beating a $5 billion surplus in August 2020, and exports set a record for a sixth straight month, Tuoi Tre News reported. Exports of computers, electronics and components were more than 2.5 times their level a year earlier, and the electronics trade deficit shrank to $600 million, the smallest since April 2018, the newspaper said.

Over 10 months the balance is still negative. Imports grew 37.4% and exports 27.5%, leaving a $12.07 billion deficit, against a $19.49 billion surplus in the same period of 2025, the statistics office said. Foreign-invested companies posted a $25.76 billion surplus, while domestic firms ran a $37.83 billion deficit. As Capital Times reported, two-way trade passed $1 trillion for the first time.

Investment pledges are rising faster. Registered foreign investment, which counts new projects, capital increases and share purchases, reached $54.85 billion in the first 10 months, up 74% from a year earlier, the office said, citing the Foreign Investment Agency. Tuoi Tre News said that was the highest for the period since 2009. Disbursed foreign direct investment, the money that has arrived, rose 13.1% to an estimated $24.08 billion.

Singapore led new project pledges with $9.52 billion, nearly a third of the total. South Korea followed with $5.81 billion, then Luxembourg with $4.99 billion, Hong Kong with $3.57 billion and mainland China with $2.77 billion, according to Tuoi Tre News.

The dong held up last month even as the dollar firmed abroad. The global dollar index averaged 101.88 in October through Oct. 28, up 2.39 points from September, yet Vietnam's domestic dollar price index fell 0.26% on the month because foreign currency supply was relatively plentiful and the central bank managed the exchange rate flexibly, the statistics office said in its price report.

Foreign investors keep selling Vietnamese stocks

Portfolio money is moving the other way. Foreign investors sold a net 24.02 trillion dong ($932 million) of shares on the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange in October, the largest monthly outflow of 2026, Tuoi Tre News reported. Their ownership ratio on the exchange fell to about 13% by Oct. 29 from 14.69% at the end of 2025, after briefly touching 12.93% on Oct. 19, the lowest in data going back to late 2018. Nearly 60% of the month's net selling went through negotiated block trades.

The VN-Index ended October 1.5% lower as the selling continued.

On Wednesday the dollar also fell broadly. By midday in Asia the dollar index was down 0.3% at 101.4 as markets reacted to the U.S. midterm elections, VnExpress reported, citing Reuters.

The dong's run may be tested. Analysts at UOB said the Federal Reserve's rate increase in September, and the chance of two more before the first quarter of 2027, would narrow the gap between Vietnamese and U.S. interest rates and leave the exchange rate more exposed to portfolio flows, VnExpress reported on Oct. 31. MB Securities said pressure on the exchange rate was likely to persist because the dollar is expected to strengthen in the final months of the year.

Inflation stays above the 4.5% target

A stronger currency would help Hanoi on prices. Consumer prices rose 0.2% in October from September, mainly because domestic fuel prices followed global markets higher, and were 5.09% above a year earlier, the statistics office said. Inflation averaged 4.57% over 10 months, slightly above the 4.5% target set by the National Assembly, while core inflation averaged 4.24%.

Fuel drove the October rise. The office's fuel price index was 35.03% higher than a year earlier, after year-on-year declines in January and February. Over 10 months, the largest contributions came from food and catering, up 4.61% on average, and from housing, electricity, water and building materials, up 6.66%.

The Ministry of Finance has drawn up inflation scenarios of 4.5% and 4.8% for 2026, and the central bank expects 4.5% to 5%, Xinhua reported in October. Hanoi has since acted. The special consumption tax on petrol fell to zero on Nov. 1 and will stay there until March 31, 2027, and E10 RON95 petrol dropped 6.14% that day to 24,150 dong a liter, VnExpress reported.

Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Van Thang told lawmakers on Oct. 31 that the tax cut and a roughly 2% reduction in average power prices would create about 0.07 percentage point of extra room to control inflation, according to VnExpress. Both cuts took effect on Nov. 1. The petrol cut will first show up in the November price index. The power cut is likely to take a month longer, because the office's household electricity index is based on the previous month's sales.