Indonesia's car market is growing quickly in 2026, but the country's dominant car distributor is collecting a shrinking share of the gains. Wholesale car sales rose 21% to 679,020 units in the first nine months, according to data from the Association of Indonesia Automotive Industries (Gaikindo), while PT Astra International's car sales grew 12.6% to 334,987 units.

The gap matters for investors who use Astra as a proxy for Indonesian consumer demand. The market is growing, but Astra's share of it is shrinking, and the group's selling expenses rose faster than its revenue over the nine months.

Astra Loses Share as Car Market Booms

Astra's share of national car sales stood at 49% for the nine months, the company said in its third-quarter results released on Oct. 28. The monthly figures are starker. In September, Astra sold 36,723 cars, up 9.5% from a year earlier, while the national market grew 28.1% to about 79,540 units, according to Gaikindo. That cut Astra's share for the month to 46%, from 54% in September 2025, according to figures from the company reported by Kontan.

Toyota, including Lexus, accounted for 21,942 of Astra's September sales and Daihatsu for 11,558, with Isuzu trucks making up most of the rest. Astra's low cost green car sales, the small budget models that have long anchored its volumes, fell to 7,781 units from 8,163 in August.

Toyota and Daihatsu still lead the market by a wide margin. Toyota sold 197,809 cars through September, a 29.1% share, and Daihatsu 112,442, according to Gaikindo data cited by Kontan. Chinese electric carmaker BYD ranked fifth with 43,727 units, or 6.4% of the market, close behind Suzuki and Mitsubishi Motors.

Momentum cooled slightly in September. National wholesales fell 2.7% from August and retail sales, which track cars sold to consumers, dropped 2.6% to 81,243 units. Over nine months, retail sales rose 15.4% to 676,223 units, a slower pace than wholesales, which measure shipments from factories to dealers.

Profit Rises in Cars, Falls Across the Group

The higher volumes still lifted Astra's car-related earnings. Net profit from the automotive business rose 8% to Rp9.8 trillion in the nine months, from Rp9.0 trillion a year earlier, helped by higher sales and a 15% jump in the components division's contribution to Rp1.4 trillion, the company said.

Motorcycles, a larger business by units, grew more slowly. National motorcycle sales rose 4% to 5 million units, and sales of Honda motorcycles, which Astra distributes, rose 3%, holding the brand's share at 77%.

The group's consumer finance arm benefited from the car market. Net financing receivables rose 6% from December to Rp132.0 trillion, and new financing grew 8% to Rp92.5 trillion, driven by new car loans and multi-cycle lending, Astra said. Its car-focused lenders contributed Rp1.9 trillion of net profit, up 6%. The trend contrasts with Bank Central Asia, where auto loans fell 20.6% from a year earlier.

Costs rose across the group. Selling expenses rose 22.5% to Rp10.41 trillion and general and administrative costs rose 10.3% to Rp16.94 trillion, according to an analysis of the filing by Indonesia Business Post. Group revenue was flat at Rp243.9 trillion.

Astra's reported net profit fell 12% to Rp21.6 trillion, after Rp3.0 trillion of non-recurring items, mainly impairments and fair value losses on equity investments. Excluding those items, profit slipped 1% to Rp24.6 trillion. The mining and heavy equipment business, run through United Tractors, was the main drag: its underlying profit fell 28% to Rp5.1 trillion after a production halt at the Martabe gold mine early in the year and a lower national coal production quota cut demand for Komatsu machinery and mining services.

President Director Rudy said in the release that performance improved in the third quarter, citing higher mining contract volumes, the restart of Martabe and continued growth in automotive. He said the company expects those factors to support results in the fourth quarter.

Buybacks and a Tender Offer

Astra is also returning cash to shareholders. The group completed Rp10.0 trillion of share buybacks between November 2025 and September 2026, and Astra's own Rp8.0 trillion program is still running. United Tractors announced a buyback of up to Rp2.0 trillion and Astra Agro Lestari one of up to Rp400 billion, both for October to December.

The parent is also running a voluntary tender offer for up to 4.95% of components maker Astra Otoparts at Rp3,600 a share, worth up to about Rp858 billion. The offer would lift Astra's stake from 80% if fully taken up.

The buybacks and the acquisition of gold miner PT Arafura Surya Alam reduced Astra's net cash, excluding its financial services units, to Rp1.8 trillion at the end of September from Rp7.2 trillion at the end of 2025.

The Astra Otoparts tender closes on Nov. 11. Gaikindo's October sales figures will show whether Astra's monthly share has stabilized near 46% or kept sliding as BYD and other newer brands expand.