India and the United States have settled most of the issues in the first phase of their bilateral trade agreement, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Oct. 26, as Indian exports to America rose 48% in September to $8.02 billion.

For investors in Asia, the deal matters beyond the two countries. India competes with other Asian exporters for factory investment and U.S. orders, and the tariff rate on Indian goods relative to theirs will shape where buyers place orders in 2027. The export numbers show Indian shippers are already moving.

What Goyal and Rubio Said About the India-US Deal

Speaking at an India-Netherlands business forum in The Hague, Goyal said the two sides had “concluded most of the discussions and are fine-tuning the agreement,” according to an ANI report carried by The Tribune. He also said India has concluded nine free trade agreements in the past four and a half years.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a similar note. He described the two governments as about as close as possible without a signed agreement and said a small number of items were left, The Tribune reported. A week earlier, in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, Rubio told reporters on Oct. 19 that the U.S. was “very close” to finalizing the deal, according to The American Bazaar. Goyal had said the previous week that the first tranche had been finalized and was going through legal drafting.

No signing date has been announced. Neither side has published the text, tariff schedules or a value for the deal.

The talks have run for more than a year. In February the two countries announced a framework for the first phase, under which Goyal said the U.S. reciprocal tariff on Indian goods would fall to 18% from 50%. Spices, tea, coffee, cashews and several fruits were to enter the U.S. duty free, while India kept staples such as wheat, rice, maize, sugar, soybean and poultry outside its concessions and said its farm and dairy sectors were protected, according to All India Radio. Bloomberg reported that the framework also included an Indian commitment to buy $500 billion of American goods over five years.

The ground then shifted. Later in February the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump's emergency tariffs, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter as saying New Delhi was not considering backing away from the agreement. The Tribune said changes in the U.S. tariff regime prompted further rounds of negotiation, covering market access, farm goods, industrial products and regulatory barriers.

Exports to the U.S. Recover From a Low Base

The September jump comes off a weak comparison. Exports to the U.S. had fallen to $5.42 billion in September 2025 after higher American duties took effect, Maritime Gateway reported. For April through September, shipments to the U.S. reached $50.81 billion, up 11.11% from a year earlier. All India Radio, citing commerce ministry data, put the six-month figure at about $51 billion against $45.73 billion a year before.

India's overall trade also improved. Merchandise exports rose 23% in September to $44.4 billion and imports grew 8% to $74.61 billion, narrowing the trade deficit to $30.21 billion from $33 billion a year earlier, Business Today reported from government data. Merchandise exports for the first half of the fiscal year totaled $259.89 billion, up 18.51%.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agarwal said in mid-October that negotiations were “moving in the right direction,” according to All India Radio. Commerce ministry data also put total exports of goods and services in September at an estimated $80.75 billion, up 10.99%.

Part of the September strength may reflect exporters shipping ahead of possible new duties. Maritime Gateway's report linked the rise to tariff concerns that accelerated shipments.

Section 301 and Russian Oil Remain Open

The trade deal would not settle every U.S. measure facing Indian goods. Since July 24, many Indian goods have faced their normal most-favored-nation duty plus a 10% Section 301 charge, which replaced an expiring temporary surcharge of the same rate, The Week reported. Steel, aluminum and some auto parts instead pay separate Section 232 tariffs of 25% to 50%. India was placed in the 10% category under the Section 301 forced-labor measures, subject to product exemptions, and India is also part of a separate Section 301 investigation into excess capacity, Maritime Gateway reported. Those forced-labor tariffs are under challenge at the U.S. Court of International Trade.

Energy is the other open file. On Oct. 16 Trump signed an executive order suspending a provision of the Graham Act sanctions law that could have imposed tariffs of up to 100% on goods from countries buying Russian oil and gas, The American Bazaar reported. Rubio said a 60-day period would be used to study the economic effects. India imported 2.8 million barrels per day of Russian crude in July, or 55.5% of its total crude imports, according to the same report, and New Delhi has defended those purchases as a sovereign right.

Rubio linked the trade talks to decisions on the waivers. Neither government has said what happens when the 60-day review ends.

India's October trade data, due from the commerce ministry in mid-November, will show whether shipments to the U.S. held their September pace.