India's four largest listed motorcycle and scooter makers shipped just over 2.04 million two-wheelers in October, about 18% more than a year earlier, according to a Capital Times calculation from company figures, as Navratri buying and a surge in exports lifted volumes. TVS Motor posted the fastest growth of the group, with total sales up 29% to 700,134 units, the company said on Nov. 1.

For investors in Asia, the figures offer an early read on Indian consumer demand going into Diwali and on how fast Indian manufacturers are expanding abroad. TVS, which also builds vehicles in Indonesia, said its two-wheeler exports rose by half.

Hero MotoCorp remained the largest seller by volume with 734,403 units, up 16% from 635,808, according to a monthly tally compiled by Upstox News. Bajaj Auto sold 501,194 two-wheelers, up 13%, and Eicher Motors, the owner of Royal Enfield, sold 133,442 motorcycles, up 7%. The combined total counts TVS's 670,679 two-wheelers, up 28%, and excludes three-wheelers and Bajaj's commercial vehicles; on that basis the four sold about 1.73 million a year earlier, in line with October 2025 figures reported by Autocar India. The figures are dispatches from factories to dealers, not sales to customers.

TVS Motor leads on exports and EVs

TVS's release showed two engines of growth. Domestic two-wheeler sales rose 22% to 514,764 units, a solid but slower pace than the headline. Overseas business did the heavy lifting: two-wheeler exports climbed 51% to 155,915 units, and total international sales, including three-wheelers, reached 175,350.

Electric models grew fastest. TVS shipped 71,382 electric two-wheelers in October, more than double the 32,387 a year earlier. Its three-wheeler business also rose 60% to 29,455 units.

TVS Motor shares rose 5.4% in the five sessions to Nov. 2, to 4,213 rupees, the best five-day showing among the four large makers, according to Upstox data. Hero's stock was roughly flat over the same period, slipping 0.1% to 5,193 rupees. Bajaj Auto gained 2.6% to 10,339 rupees and Eicher Motors 1.6% to 7,213 rupees. Over one month, Eicher was up 4.2% and Hero up 0.4%.

Retail data tell a similar story. Electric two-wheeler registrations on the government's Vahan portal reached a record 223,847 in October, up 48% from 150,891 a year earlier and up 7% from September, Autocar Professional reported. It was the third month this year above 200,000, after July and September. TVS led with 60,429 registrations and a 27% share, followed by Bajaj at 49,067 (up 51%, a 22% share) and Ather Energy at 31,796. Hero's Vida brand registered 29,901 units, up 81%. Registrations differ from TVS's dispatch figure because they count vehicles delivered to buyers in India, not those shipped to dealers or abroad.

The startups fared unevenly. Ather's registrations rose only 5%, and Ola Electric's fell 26% to 12,096, cutting its share to 5%. Investors have nonetheless bid up both stocks: Ather gained 26.2% over the month to Nov. 2, while Ola rose 16.4% in five sessions, Upstox data showed.

Costs weigh on margins

Strong volumes have not yet translated into fatter profits. Bajaj Auto's operating margin (EBITDA as a share of revenue) fell to 19.7% in the September quarter from 22.2% a year earlier, which Upstox attributed to higher raw material costs. Hero's margin slipped to 13.39% from 15.03%, and its earnings missed market estimates.

Analysts at Antique Stock Broking, quoted by Upstox, said input cost inflation had been sticky for three straight quarters and that price increases in October only partly covered it. The brokerage said it sees "core margin recovery as back-ended" and expects earnings growth to moderate. That leaves volume growth and a richer export mix as the main levers for the rest of the fiscal year, a pattern also visible at India's largest carmaker, where Maruti Suzuki's profit fell 27% despite record sales.

Diwali falls in November this year

The calendar flatters October only partly. Navratri ran from Oct. 11 to Oct. 20, but Dhanteras, traditionally one of the busiest days for vehicle purchases, falls on Nov. 6 and Diwali on Nov. 8, according to Autocar Professional. Dealers stocked up in October for those dates, so some of the dispatch growth reflects inventory building that still has to clear at showrooms.

Ather and Ola Electric had not published their own October sales figures as of Nov. 2. The next test is retail: if registrations in the first half of November keep pace with factory shipments, the October gains will look like demand rather than dealer stocking. The four large makers typically publish November dispatch numbers in the first days of December.