Inpex Corp. raised its full-year net profit forecast for 2026 by 40 billion yen to a record 550 billion yen (about $3.5 billion), Japan's largest oil and gas producer said on Thursday, citing higher realized prices and steady output from its Ichthys LNG plant in northern Australia. It also said it had agreed its first gas sales deals for the Abadi LNG project in Indonesia.

For investors in Asia, the results show how the Middle East conflict has split Inpex's business in two. Its Abu Dhabi oil fields have lost half their sales, while Ichthys, which ships to Japan and other Asian buyers from Darwin, has carried the group. The Abadi deals matter for a different reason: they are the first buyers signed for Inpex's next big LNG project, which sits in Indonesian waters.

Inpex results: Ichthys carries the year

Net profit attributable to owners rose 38.9% to 407.6 billion yen in the nine months to September, from 293.4 billion yen a year earlier, Inpex said in its filing to the Tokyo Stock Exchange. Revenue fell 6% to 1.43 trillion yen because the company sold less crude oil, but operating profit rose 5.7% to 922.8 billion yen.

Brent crude averaged $88.86 a barrel over the period, up 27.1% from $69.91 a year earlier, and the yen averaged 158.67 to the dollar, 7.1% weaker, according to the company's results presentation. Inpex said higher unit prices, a larger share of profit from the Ichthys downstream joint venture and lower income tax expense more than offset the lost volume.

Ichthys did most of the work. Its segment profit for the nine months rose to 300.9 billion yen from 181.1 billion yen, and Inpex expects it to contribute about 440 billion yen for the full year. The plant shipped 106 LNG cargoes from January through October, and Inpex said 2026 shipments would now beat the guidance it gave in August, of about 10 cargoes a month plus several extra, by several more cargoes. The first of three trains has switched to new low-pressure production facilities, with the other two due to follow through early 2027. A shutdown of about 1.5 months, mainly to inspect LNG Train 1, is planned from mid-July 2027.

The Middle East remains the weak spot. Production at the Abu Dhabi onshore and offshore fields is close to normal, Inpex said, but offshore sales are still constrained and are expected to stay that way through year-end. It now expects full-year Abu Dhabi crude sales volume to fall 50% from 2025. Disruption to tanker traffic through the region has hit other Asian buyers too, as Capital Times reported in its coverage of attacks on tankers near Hormuz.

The new forecast assumes Brent averages $90 for the year, up from $81.40 in August, and the yen at 158.2 per dollar. Inpex trimmed its revenue forecast to 1.875 trillion yen from 1.973 trillion yen, while profit before tax is now seen at 1.257 trillion yen. The profit outlook has climbed steadily this year. In May, Inpex gave a range of 350 billion to 450 billion yen, citing uncertainty over the conflict, according to a Reuters report published by Baird Maritime.

Inpex kept its dividend forecast at 112 yen a share for 2026, up from 100 yen last year. It said it plans additional shareholder returns to reach a total payout ratio of at least 50% once full-year results are final, taking into account the situation in the Middle East and U.S. energy policy.

Abadi LNG gets its first buyers

Inpex said it agreed sales and purchase agreements for LNG and gas sales agreements for pipeline gas with three buyers in October. An Inpex spokesman confirmed the first Abadi LNG sales and purchase agreements to the trade publication LNG Prime on Thursday. The company did not name the buyers in its results materials and said talks with other buyers were continuing.

Front-end engineering design for the project's floating production unit and onshore LNG plant was completed in October, and tenders for the main engineering, procurement and construction packages are under way, Inpex said. It is targeting a final investment decision around mid-2027, subject to an economic evaluation based on post-design cost and schedule estimates, final technical and commercial agreements, and approvals from stakeholders including the Indonesian government. Production is shown starting in the early 2030s.

Inpex is already building up cash for the project. Of the 1 trillion yen it expects to spend on investing activities in 2026, 365 billion yen will be set aside as reserves for Abadi development. That should leave about 920 billion yen in the reserve by the end of the year, ahead of the company's original plan for a balance of 600 billion to 800 billion yen by the end of 2027.

What Asian buyers should watch

Group net output averaged 633,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in the nine months, with Ichthys accounting for 39%, according to the presentation. That keeps Inpex among the larger suppliers of Australian LNG to Japan, at a time when Japanese utilities are also weighing nuclear restarts that could cut LNG demand.

The next milestones on Inpex's own Abadi timetable come before the investment decision: more sales agreements with the buyers it is still negotiating with, and a commitment letter from lenders, with financing term sheets still under negotiation. For shareholders, the nearer marker is the full-year result, when Inpex will decide how much extra to return to reach its 50% payout target.