Lithium has lost about half its value in six months, and last week brought three signs of what that means for the companies and governments that bet on the battery metal: a slowed Rio Tinto refinery project in Canada, a surplus forecast from Chile and an export ban in India.

Spot prices for lithium carbonate in Asia have fallen to $12.90 a kilogram from more than $25 in May, BMO Capital Markets said on Thursday, citing data from the price reporting agency Fastmarkets, according to The Northern Miner. The bank pointed to weak demand growth and expanding supply from Africa and China.

Inside China, the slide passed a round number last month. The average spot price of battery-grade lithium carbonate assessed by Shanghai Metals Market dropped to 99,350 yuan a metric ton on Oct. 22, below 100,000 yuan, as supply grew and orders at battery material makers declined, the price reporting agency said at the time. The most-traded lithium carbonate futures contract in Guangzhou had reached a two-year high above 200,000 yuan in mid-May, MINING.COM reported in July.

Rio Tinto's Quebec plant sheds staff

The clearest corporate casualty of the week was Nemaska Lithium, the Quebec venture that Rio Tinto controls. Construction of its lithium hydroxide plant at Bécancour is set to remain on hold through 2027, putting a planned 2028 start in doubt, The Northern Miner reported on Thursday, citing Le Journal de Montréal. Rio Tinto has not confirmed that timetable in the reports reviewed by Capital Times. The newspaper cited a company letter telling employees that work could resume in 2028. The Northern Miner described the 2028 restart as unconfirmed.

The job cuts are confirmed. A Rio Tinto spokesperson told the Canadian broadcaster Noovo Info on Nov. 10 that Nemaska Lithium had informed staff of a decision to reduce its workforce, which Noovo attributed to lower activity planned for next year. The office of Quebec's economic development minister confirmed 68 layoffs running through December, according to The Northern Miner.

The plant is far from a paper project. Rio Tinto said in a March 13 statement that engineering was complete and construction more than 70% advanced when it decided to slow work during 2026, and that it did not foresee major changes to the overall timeline. The company said then that it "remains fully committed to the Bécancour project and to Québec" and would invest more than US$300 million in its Quebec lithium business in 2026.

Rio Tinto took over direct management in February after lifting its stake to about 54%. The province holds the remaining 46% through Investissement Québec, The Northern Miner reported. Public funding for the venture totals C$1.2 billion (US$846 million), the trade publication said, citing the Montreal newspaper. The plant was designed to produce 32,000 tons a year, MINING.COM reported in March.

The project has become a matter of political debate in Quebec. Premier Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has said the province will not add to its investment in Nemaska, which he described as a risky battery-sector project, Noovo Info reported on Nov. 6. Former Premier François Legault responded on X by asking whether the government wanted Quebec's lithium mines to be foreign-owned and its resources processed abroad, the broadcaster said. Bécancour Mayor Pascal Blondin told the broadcaster the plant was very important for the region.

Rio Tinto has also yet to decide whether Nemaska's Whabouchi deposit or its wholly owned Galaxy project will feed the plant with spodumene, the hard-rock lithium ore. BMO said on Thursday that the choice remained unresolved, according to The Northern Miner.

Chile sees a surplus in 2027

Chile, which holds 25% of the world's available lithium reserves, expects the market to loosen further. The state copper commission Cochilco forecast on Thursday that the global lithium market will end 2026 with a deficit of 79,000 tons and move to a surplus of 42,000 tons in 2027, Reuters reported.

Chile's own output is set to keep rising at a measured pace. Cochilco expects production of 325,000 tons this year, up from 311,000 tons in 2025, and 335,000 tons in 2027, an increase of 3.1%.

The export mix shows where the metal is going. Lithium sulfate made up 21% of Chile's lithium exports from January to July, up from 11% in 2025, and Cochilco said the product is becoming strategic for Chinese refineries, according to Reuters. Carbonate accounted for 74% and hydroxide for 5%.

Chile's regional lead is not guaranteed. Argentina could produce 481,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent in 2035 against Chile's 426,000 tons, according to a forecast by GEM Mining Consulting reported by MINING.COM on Nov. 11. That ranking depends on the Pozuelos-Pastos Grandes project, in which China's Ganfeng Lithium holds 67% and Lithium Argentina 33%. GEM's central case puts global supply at 3.55 million tons in 2035, with Australia the largest producer at about 966,000 tons and China at 619,000 tons.

GEM also cautioned that financing constraints and construction delays could change those rankings, and that announced capacity should not be counted as guaranteed supply, MINING.COM reported.

India keeps battery scrap at home

Lower prices have not stopped governments from trying to hold on to the material. India on Tuesday banned exports of black mass, the powder recovered from used lithium-ion batteries that contains lithium, cobalt, nickel and manganese, Reuters reported. The commerce ministry changed the material's export status from free to prohibited with immediate effect.

The step followed cabinet approval of an incentive program worth 28.14 billion rupees (about $300.2 million) to build domestic processing of lithium and nickel and reduce reliance on supply chains dominated by China, according to Reuters. India is targeting electric vehicles at 30% of new car sales by 2030.

Capital Times has separately covered India's funding plan for energy storage and CATL's third-quarter results.

What to watch

In China, the near-term picture is of a market looking for a floor. Mysteel, a Chinese commodities data provider, said on Nov. 11 that lithium carbonate futures remained bearish, with traders focused on the progress of a restart at the Jianxiawo mine and on slower drawdowns of inventories.

Mysteel also said prices were approaching the breakeven point for converters that buy their feedstock from outside suppliers, which it expected to give some support, and that prices would likely stay in a range in the near term.

For Rio Tinto, the open questions are when work at Bécancour resumes and which mine will supply it. For the wider market, the test is whether Cochilco's projected 2027 surplus arrives on schedule, or whether more paused projects shrink it first.