Genting Singapore said its third-quarter net profit fell 42% from a year earlier to S$54.7 million (US$42.6 million), as softer spending by high-end gamblers and an unlucky run at the VIP tables in September cut gaming revenue at Resorts World Sentosa by more than a fifth.

The result, released in a business update on Thursday, adds to evidence that Singapore's two-casino market is losing momentum with premium players. Rival Marina Bay Sands also reported weaker earnings for the same quarter. For investors, the numbers show how much the resort still depends on a small group of high-spending visitors, and how a renovation program meant to lift long-term returns is squeezing capacity in the near term.

Net profit compared with S$94.6 million a year earlier, according to figures reported by trade publication ASEAN Gaming. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) fell 27% to S$161.8 million. Total revenue declined 13% to S$566.1 million. Inside Asian Gaming reported the same figures, and Gaming Intelligence the same revenue total.

Genting Singapore gaming revenue falls 22%

The casino business did most of the damage. Gaming revenue dropped 22% to S$315.0 million. The company said the slowdown in premium play was "consistent with a trend observed in regional key markets," and that an unfavorable rolling win rate in September hurt revenue further.

The rolling win rate measures how much the house keeps from chips wagered by VIP players, and it can swing sharply from quarter to quarter on luck. Genting Singapore estimated that adjusted EBITDA would have been about S$36 million higher had the win rate been at normal levels. That would still have left EBITDA well below the year-earlier figure.

Non-gaming revenue, which covers hotels, attractions, dining and retail, rose 1% to S$250.9 million. The increase came even though the resort had fewer hotel rooms available, according to the company.

The resort is in the middle of a large renovation program. Genting Singapore said the next phase includes upgrading and repositioning hotels and improving gaming areas, lounges and restaurants. It warned that the work would temporarily limit operating capacity through 2027. In the meantime, the company said it is building up its business development and marketing teams to win back premium customers, and is counting on events and new openings at WEAVE, as well as year-end travel and festive demand in the fourth quarter.

Maybank cuts forecasts for Resorts World Sentosa

Analysts were quick to trim their numbers. In a note dated Nov. 13, Maybank analyst Samuel Yin Shao Yang lowered his core net profit forecast for Genting Singapore by 18% for 2026 and by 14% each for 2027 and 2028, ASEAN Gaming reported. The brokerage said it sees no meaningful recovery in sight yet.

Maybank estimated that VIP rolling volume at Resorts World Sentosa fell 32% from a year earlier to about S$6 billion in the third quarter, while mass-market gross gaming revenue slipped 4%. It put the VIP win rate at 2.7%, compared with a theoretical rate of 3.5%.

The brokerage cut its annual VIP volume forecast for 2026 to 2028 to S$24 billion from S$28 billion, and its annual mass-market gross gaming revenue forecast to S$1.5 billion from S$1.6 billion. It holds both figures flat across the three years, which means it is not assuming growth in either segment.

Room supply is the main constraint in Maybank's view. Renovations at Hotel Michael have cut the resort's available rooms to about 1,000, and further work at that hotel and at Crockfords Tower is expected to reduce the total to around 900 in the fourth quarter, according to the note. Maybank said fewer rooms means less capacity to house VIP and premium mass-market gamblers. It expects Hotel Michael to reopen fully in the first half of 2027 and Crockfords Tower in early 2028.

The note also pointed to longer-term pressure from Marina Bay Sands, saying Resorts World Sentosa has lost share of both VIP volume and mass-market gaming revenue to its rival. Maybank forecasts EBITDA growth of around 5% in 2027, which it attributed mainly to lower impairment losses on receivables rather than a pickup in gaming.

A soft quarter for Singapore's casino duopoly

Singapore allows only two casinos: Resorts World Sentosa and Las Vegas Sands' Marina Bay Sands. Both reported a weaker third quarter. Marina Bay Sands' adjusted property EBITDA fell 20.6% from a year earlier to US$590 million, and its net revenue declined to US$1.29 billion from US$1.44 billion, according to ASEAN Gaming.

The common thread is softer premium demand, which Genting Singapore described as a regional pattern rather than a problem unique to Sentosa. For Genting Singapore, the renovation schedule adds a company-specific drag: the hotel rooms that bring in its highest-spending guests will be in short supply until Crockfords Tower reopens, which Maybank expects in early 2028.

The next test is the fourth quarter, which includes the year-end holiday period the company has singled out as a priority.